Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir Stable mainline Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Stable / Regularized / Projection-Anchored · Stable mainline

Palantir Model

Stable, regularized, projection-anchored. Not the sharpest take by design.

Markets
6
Active
6
Date
2026-06-01
Method Regularized linear, GLM-style, and projection-stack anchored methods. Status Stable mainline Coverage 6 of 6 markets currently have a Palantir lane.
Definition

What this lane is

01
Method family
Palantir is the stable mainline. Its job is to start from broad priors, absorb the core projection stack, and avoid overreacting to noisy short-window signals.
palantir
02
Not this
Not a Random Forest with tighter hyperparameters, not a confidence filter, and not the riskiest take by design.
guardrail
Distinctness

Falsifiable test

Can the core probability be explained as a regularized transformation of projection priors, matchup aggregates, and market line context? If yes, this is Palantir.

Comparison first

The value of the three-lane system is comparison. No single lane is the right one in isolation.

Coverage matrix

Palantir across six betting families

MarketStatusMethodDate
Home Runs Production Elastic-net / projection-stack anchor for HR probability. 2026-06-01 Open
Strikeouts Production Projection-stack K mean plus transparent count distribution. 2026-06-01 Open
Total Bases Production Expected total bases from contact volume and hitter/pitcher projection anchors. 2026-06-01 Open
Hits Production Contact-opportunity anchor around expected hits and over/under probability. 2026-06-01 Open
Pitcher Outs Production Workload and leash projection anchor transformed into outs probability. 2026-06-01 Open
Futures Production M2 projection ensemble and Monte Carlo season simulator. -- Open