Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	491	45	101	13	1	.220	.267	.336	.603
2025	433	38	84	11	3	.213	.271	.332	.603
2026	180	20	38	9	0	.232	.289	.451	.740
7 Seasons	2381	242	493	77	11	.226	.282	.377	.659

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18

33

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

37

Defense6 metrics

52

Speed1 metrics

8

Plate skills10 metrics

46

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18

xwOBA preseason	0.299
xwOBA current pace	0.297
xwOBA rolling p50	0.298
Observed weight	47%

xwOBA

0.270 0.283 0.298 0.313 0.326

wOBA

0.297 0.318 0.341 0.364 0.385

ISO

0.150 0.167 0.185 0.203 0.219

K%

17.1% 18.5% 20.0% 21.5% 22.9%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%4.7%

45

Exit velocity86.8

31

Hard-hit%29.5%

13 -27 vs proj

xBA0.297

24

xSLG0.496

45

xwOBA0.297

40

BB%7.3%

34

Bat speed68.4

32

K%19.3%

69

Defense · percentile strip

Blocking Runs0.5 · C

77

Catcher Throwing-0.9 · C

24

Framing Runs0.5 · C

59

Outs Above Avg0.0 · C

65

Pop Time2.0 · C

21

Range Runs0.0 · C

67

Baserunning · percentile strip

Sprint Speed25.3 · C

8

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-18

Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.7% · rebadged research

51

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.9% · rebadged research

25

Correct Decisions65.5% · rebadged research

43

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline

56

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample

11

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample

89

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample

79

Resists FastballwOBA 0.349 · validated

29

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated

44

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98

37

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jonah Heim's tools (82) outpace production (68) by 14 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+12.3° Current 4° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

86 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.3σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.341

xwOBA (deserved)0.297

Heim’s wOBA sits at 0.341, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.297 — a gap of 0.044, -1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 192 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	2	2026-07-05	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.291 xwOBA \| 13 HR	Projection
2026-04-11 vs CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 1 E	1-4
2026-04-08 @ LAA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, K, RBI
2026-04-07 @ LAA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 14 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| RBI
2026-04-03 @ AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-2
2026-03-30 vs ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, 2 K

Age	31
Height	6' 4"
Weight	220 lb
Debut	2020-08-25

xwOBA Δ	+0.005
wOBA Δ	+0.049

Hitter Projections 20260.291 xwOBA \| 13 HR	Projection
2026-04-11 vs CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 1 E	1-4
2026-04-08 @ LAA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, K, RBI
2026-04-07 @ LAA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 14 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| RBI
2026-04-03 @ AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-2
2026-03-30 vs ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, 2 K

Jonah Heim

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Module shelf

Available detail