Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	428	45	108	4	3	.269	.296	.361	.657
2025	398	43	89	7	3	.241	.289	.355	.644
2026	532	58	131	10	7	.266	.311	.383	.694
8 Seasons	2590	306	624	49	29	.259	.298	.376	.674

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02

30

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

36

Defense4 metrics

74

Speed3 metrics

42

Plate skills10 metrics

41

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02

xwOBA preseason	0.290
xwOBA current pace	0.304
xwOBA rolling p50	0.300
Observed weight	71%

xwOBA

0.279 0.289 0.300 0.310 0.320

wOBA

0.309 0.321 0.335 0.348 0.360

ISO

0.102 0.111 0.122 0.133 0.142

K%

10.4% 11.2% 12.2% 13.1% 13.9%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%2.9%

22

Exit velocity86.3

32

Hard-hit%30.2%

16

xBA0.308

37

xSLG0.430

25

xwOBA0.304

49 +24 vs proj

BB%5.6%

18

Bat speed67.3

24

K%12.0%

96

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs1.7 · LF

87

Arm Strength97.2 · LF

79

Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF

49

Range Runs3.6 · LF

82

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs0.2 · LF

49

SB Success Rate80.0% · LF

48

Sprint Speed26.7 · LF

30

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-02

Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.9% · rebadged research

22

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8% · rebadged research

63

Correct Decisions63.8% · rebadged research

26

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97

31

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.315 · borderline

13

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · insufficient sample

9

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.246 · validated thin sample

98

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample

15

Resists FastballwOBA 0.302 · validated

96

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363 · validated

32

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Mauricio Dubón's tools (80) outpace production (74) by 6 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

276 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.2σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.335

xwOBA (deserved)0.304

Dubón’s wOBA sits at 0.335, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.304 — a gap of 0.031, -1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 551 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Hoerner, Nico CHC · R	0.78	Sweet-spot ratexwOBA on contact	Player · Projection
McNeil, Jeff ATH · L	0.66	xwOBA on contactAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection
Lee, Jung Hoo SF · L	0.64	Swing lengthWalk rate	Player · Projection
Vierling, Matt DET · R	0.63	Pull rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	2	2026-08-20	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.280 xwOBA \| 8 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-4
2026-05-20 @ MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| R
2026-04-17 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| HBP
2026-04-15 vs MIA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| RBI
2026-04-14 vs MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2 K, R

Age	32
Height	5' 11"
Weight	173 lb
Debut	2019-07-07

xwOBA Δ	+0.023
wOBA Δ	+0.054

Hitter Projections 20260.280 xwOBA \| 8 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-4
2026-05-20 @ MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| R
2026-04-17 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| HBP
2026-04-15 vs MIA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| RBI
2026-04-14 vs MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2 K, R

Mauricio Dubón

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail