Reference layer
Current snapshot
| MLB bio context is unavailable. |
Player profile / STL
Nathan Church
Player · Bats/Throws L/L · 5' 10", 180 lb · Age 26
Club STL
Position --
Roster profile
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 65 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 1 | .179 | .254 | .250 | .504 |
| 2026 | 470 | 53 | 107 | 10 | 10 | .247 | .290 | .364 | .654 |
| 2 Seasons | 535 | 62 | 117 | 11 | 11 | .239 | .286 | .351 | .637 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
24
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
35
Exit velocity83.9
13
Hard-hit%29.9%
17
xBA0.298
27
xSLG0.436
26
xwOBA0.283
28
BB%5.5%
18
Bat speed66.7
19
K%16.8%
83
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · CF
38
Arm Strength101.0 · CF
95
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
26
Range Runs1.8 · CF
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · CF
65
SB Success Rate69.2% · CF
24
Sprint Speed28.5 · CF
80
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.3% · rebadged research
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0% · rebadged research
32
Correct Decisions61.0% · rebadged research
10
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline88
8
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
43
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
75
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.299 · validated thin sample
16
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.361 · insufficient sample
5
Resists FastballwOBA 0.304 · validated
95
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
71
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
243 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Church’s wOBA sits at 0.309, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.283 — a gap of 0.026, -1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 487 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giménez, Andrés TOR · L | 0.79 | Isolated powerIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
| Rafaela, Ceddanne BOS · R | 0.78 | Barrel rateMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Gonzales, Nick PIT · R | 0.67 | Sweet-spot rateStrikeout rate | Player · Projection |
| McCarthy, Jake COL · L | 0.65 | Barrel rateSwing length | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 1 | 2026-08-03 | On-base pressure held the card together |
| Fielding | 34 | 2026-09-27 | 5 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +1.937 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.289 xwOBA | 6 HR | Projection |