Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 29 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 200 lb |
| Debut | 2019-09-09 |
Player profile / Chicago Cubs
Nico Hoerner
2B · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 11", 200 lb · Age 29
Club Chicago Cubs
Position 2B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 641 | 86 | 159 | 7 | 31 | .273 | .335 | .373 | .708 |
| 2025 | 649 | 89 | 178 | 7 | 29 | .297 | .345 | .394 | .739 |
| 2026 | 600 | 56 | 142 | 8 | 22 | .261 | .317 | .358 | .675 |
| 8 Seasons | 3473 | 434 | 880 | 44 | 153 | .278 | .336 | .379 | .715 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
33
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.315 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.323 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.321 |
| Observed weight | 74% |
xwOBA
0.301
0.310
0.321
0.331
0.341
wOBA
0.310
0.322
0.335
0.347
0.359
ISO
0.089
0.098
0.108
0.117
0.126
K%
7.8%
8.5%
9.3%
10.0%
10.7%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.5%
6
Exit velocity85.9
26
Hard-hit%28.3%
12
xBA0.330
63
xSLG0.415
19
xwOBA0.323
71
BB%7.0%
32
Bat speed66.8
19
K%8.9%
99
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
46
Arm Strength84.5 · 2B
26
Outs Above Avg9.0 · 2B
95
Range Runs6.7 · 2B
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs5.3 · 2B
97
SB Success Rate95.5% · 2B
87
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
76
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.3% · rebadged research
45
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.1% · rebadged research
17
Correct Decisions63.0% · rebadged research
21
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
28
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.355 · borderline
1
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · insufficient sample
81
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.230 · validated thin sample
100
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
40
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363 · validated
33
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.018 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Hoerner’s wOBA sits at 0.335, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.323 — a gap of 0.012, -0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 618 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dubón, Mauricio ATL · R | 0.78 | Sweet-spot ratexwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Sanoja, Javier MIA · R | 0.69 | Avg exit velocityStrikeout rate | Player · Projection |
| Lee, Jung Hoo SF · L | 0.66 | Fly-ball rateWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
| McNeil, Jeff ATH · L | 0.61 | Barrel rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-04-15 | On-base pressure held the card together |
| Fielding | 27 | 2026-09-02 | 5 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -1.157 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.316 xwOBA | 9 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs STL0 HR | 0 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | R |
| 2026-05-20 vs MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B |
| 2026-04-20 vs PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-17 vs NYM1 HR | 2 RBI / 10 Ch | 0 E | 3-5 | HR, 2 RBI, R |
| 2026-04-15 @ PHI1 HR | 5 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 3-5 | HR, 5 RBI, 2 R |