Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 29 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 200 lb |
| Debut | 2019-09-09 |
Player profile / Chicago Cubs
Nico Hoerner
2B · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 11", 200 lb · Age 29
Club Chicago Cubs
Position 2B
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 641 | 86 | 159 | 7 | 31 | .273 | .335 | .373 | .708 |
| 2025 | 649 | 89 | 178 | 7 | 29 | .297 | .345 | .394 | .739 |
| 2026 | 424 | 37 | 89 | 4 | 14 | .235 | .307 | .328 | .635 |
| 8 Seasons | 3297 | 415 | 827 | 40 | 145 | .276 | .335 | .377 | .712 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
26
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.315 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.318 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.317 |
| Observed weight | 67% |
xwOBA
0.295
0.306
0.317
0.329
0.339
wOBA
0.297
0.311
0.326
0.341
0.354
ISO
0.086
0.096
0.108
0.119
0.129
K%
7.1%
7.9%
8.8%
9.7%
10.5%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.1%
5
Exit velocity86.1
27
Hard-hit%28.4%
12
xBA0.312
39
xSLG0.395
11
xwOBA0.318
63
BB%8.7%
51
+31 vs proj
Bat speed67.0
19
K%8.0%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
53
Arm Strength84.0 · 2B
33
Outs Above Avg8.0 · 2B
96
Range Runs6.2 · 2B
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.1 · 2B
95
SB Success Rate92.9% · 2B
84
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
77
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.6% · rebadged research
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9% · rebadged research
18
Correct Decisions63.6% · rebadged research
26
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320 · validated
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.336 · borderline
3
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
83
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.237 · validated thin sample
99
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
28
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
34
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
253 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.009 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Hoerner’s wOBA sits at 0.326, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.318 — a gap of 0.007, -0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 438 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| McNeil, Jeff ATH · L | 0.70 | Avg exit velocityxwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Keaschall, Luke MIN · R | 0.68 | Bat speedWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| Dubón, Mauricio ATL · R | 0.64 | Bat speedAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Lee, Jung Hoo SF · L | 0.64 | Chase rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-04-15 | On-base pressure held the card together |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.316 xwOBA | 9 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 vs MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B |
| 2026-04-20 vs PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-17 vs NYM1 HR | 2 RBI / 10 Ch | 0 E | 3-5 | HR, 2 RBI, R |
| 2026-04-15 @ PHI1 HR | 5 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 3-5 | HR, 5 RBI, 2 R |
| 2026-04-14 @ PHI0 HR | 3 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 2-6 | K, 3 RBI, R |