Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	472	57	101	12	5	.238	.308	.384	.692
2025	462	42	97	12	3	.243	.335	.411	.746
2026	432	40	105	7	7	.266	.316	.367	.683
9 Seasons	4053	472	1025	87	44	.282	.347	.421	.768

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02

30

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

36

Defense4 metrics

54

Speed2 metrics

16

Plate skills10 metrics

51

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02

xwOBA preseason	0.304
xwOBA current pace	0.309
xwOBA rolling p50	0.307
Observed weight	67%

xwOBA

0.284 0.295 0.307 0.319 0.330

wOBA

0.285 0.298 0.313 0.328 0.341

ISO

0.093 0.104 0.117 0.129 0.141

K%

9.8% 10.7% 11.7% 12.7% 13.5%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%1.6%

8

Exit velocity86.2

32

Hard-hit%29.9%

16

xBA0.317

49

xSLG0.423

21

xwOBA0.309

55

BB%6.1%

22 -24 vs proj

Bat speed67.0

20

K%10.8%

97

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.2 · 2B

73

Arm Strength86.3 · 2B

43

Outs Above Avg1.0 · 2B

72

Range Runs-2.7 · 2B

26

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-2.2 · 2B

11

Sprint Speed26.2 · 2B

22

SB Success Rate75.0% · 2B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-02

Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.5% · rebadged research

21

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.0% · rebadged research

93

Correct Decisions69.3% · rebadged research

81

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102

57

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline

77

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample

25

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.309 · validated thin sample

6

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.338 · insufficient sample

26

Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated

32

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.325 · validated

95

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jeff Mcneil's production (70) outpaces the tools grade (63) by 8 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High; Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-9.8° Current 30° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

256 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.2σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.313

xwOBA (deserved)0.309

Mcneil’s wOBA sits at 0.313, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.309 — a gap of 0.004, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 445 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Lee, Jung Hoo SF · L	0.78	Fly-ball rateBat speed	Player · Projection
Dubón, Mauricio ATL · R	0.66	xwOBA on contactAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection
Rocchio, Brayan CLE · L	0.66	Swing lengthAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection
Sanoja, Javier MIA · R	0.64	In-zone contactHard-hit rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	3	2026-09-01	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	15	2026-08-31	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.095

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.305 xwOBA \| 11 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs TEX0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K
2026-05-20 @ LAA1 HR \| 1 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| HR, BB, 2 K
2026-04-20 @ SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, R
2026-04-17 vs CWS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 1 E	1-3 \| 2B
2026-04-15 vs TEX0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| 2 BB

Age	34
Height	6' 0"
Weight	195 lb
Debut	2018-07-24

xwOBA Δ	+0.004
wOBA Δ	+0.008

Hitter Projections 20260.305 xwOBA \| 11 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs TEX0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K
2026-05-20 @ LAA1 HR \| 1 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| HR, BB, 2 K
2026-04-20 @ SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, R
2026-04-17 vs CWS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 1 E	1-3 \| 2B
2026-04-15 vs TEX0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| 2 BB

Jeff Mcneil

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail