Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 29 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 235 lb |
| Debut | 2019-05-24 |
Player profile / Seattle Mariners
Josh Naylor
1B · Bats/Throws L/L · 5' 10", 235 lb · Age 29
Club Seattle Mariners
Position 1B
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 633 | 84 | 137 | 31 | 6 | .243 | .320 | .456 | .776 |
| 2025 | 604 | 81 | 160 | 20 | 30 | .295 | .353 | .462 | .815 |
| 2026 | 392 | 35 | 90 | 8 | 18 | .253 | .317 | .354 | .671 |
| 8 Seasons | 3255 | 369 | 787 | 112 | 73 | .267 | .328 | .436 | .764 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
42
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.322 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.321 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.322 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.297
0.309
0.322
0.335
0.346
wOBA
0.290
0.304
0.320
0.335
0.349
ISO
0.102
0.114
0.128
0.142
0.155
K%
11.5%
12.4%
13.5%
14.5%
15.4%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
29
-25 vs proj
Exit velocity87.3
39
Hard-hit%37.0%
42
-17 vs proj
xBA0.315
43
xSLG0.461
32
xwOBA0.321
65
BB%7.4%
36
Bat speed68.2
29
K%12.6%
95
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
18
Range Runs-1.4 · 1B
35
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.4 · 1B
12
SB Success Rate93.8% · 1B
86
Sprint Speed24.6 · 1B
3
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.0% · rebadged research
17
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.3% · rebadged research
69
Correct Decisions63.1% · rebadged research
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
76
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.258 · insufficient sample
96
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
28
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · insufficient sample
19
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372 · validated
9
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.338 · validated
91
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
218 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.000 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.001 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Naylor’s wOBA sits at 0.320, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.321 — a gap of 0.002, 0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 404 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vargas, Ildemaro AZ · L | 0.66 | Bat speedAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Yoshida, Masataka BOS · L | 0.65 | Fly-ball rateStrikeout rate | Player · Projection |
| Contreras, William MIL · R | 0.64 | In-zone contactWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
| Rocchio, Brayan CLE · L | 0.63 | Walk rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 8 | 2026-05-08 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.321 xwOBA | 22 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 vs CWS0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |
| 2026-04-20 vs ATH0 HR | 1 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E | 3-4 | 2 2B, RBI, SB |
| 2026-04-17 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 2-2 | 2 BB |
| 2026-04-15 @ SD0 HR | 0 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E | 0-5 | 3 K |
| 2026-04-14 @ SD0 HR | 0 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 |