Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	601	87	143	28	3	.272	.354	.516	.870
2025	729	99	153	35	1	.252	.372	.479	.851
2026	454	55	100	22	0	.246	.317	.479	.796
10 Seasons	5398	770	1315	257	33	.273	.346	.504	.850

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-29

82

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

71

Defense3 metrics

48

Speed3 metrics

20

Plate skills10 metrics

56

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-29

xwOBA preseason	0.354
xwOBA current pace	0.324
xwOBA rolling p50	0.334
Observed weight	68%

xwOBA

0.310 0.321 0.334 0.347 0.358

wOBA

0.322 0.336 0.351 0.366 0.379

ISO

0.199 0.214 0.231 0.248 0.263

K%

24.1% 25.2% 26.5% 27.8% 28.9%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-29

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%7.4%

83

Exit velocity92.1

93

Hard-hit%50.7%

93

xBA0.333

64

xSLG0.652

88

xwOBA0.324

69 -24 vs proj

BB%9.4%

60 -24 vs proj

Bat speed70.6

66

K%27.3%

24

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.0 · 1B

53

Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B

44

Range Runs-0.2 · 1B

46

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-0.7 · 1B

27

Bolts1.0 · 1B

15

Sprint Speed26.0 · 1B

18

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-29

Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.9% · rebadged research

47

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.9% · rebadged research

55

Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research

64

Resists FastballwOBA 0.324 · validated

79

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100

47

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.264 · borderline

91

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample

57

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260 · validated thin sample

92

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.391 · insufficient sample

1

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated

31

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Rafael Devers's tools (78) and production (78) are aligned. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

184 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.0σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.351

xwOBA (deserved)0.324

Devers’s wOBA sits at 0.351, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.324 — a gap of 0.027, -1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 458 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Pederson, Joc TEX · L	0.79	xwOBA on contactWhiff rate	Player · Projection
McMahon, Ryan NYY · L	0.70	Oppo ratexwOBA on contact	Player · Projection
Olson, Matt ATL · L	0.69	Hard-hit rateFly-ball rate	Player · Projection
Okamoto, Kazuma TOR · R	0.67	Ground-ball rateMax exit velocity	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	7	2026-07-24	Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding	2	2026-07-28	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +0.370

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.364 xwOBA \| 29 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B
2026-04-17 @ WSH0 HR \| 1 RBI / 14 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| 2B, 3 K, RBI
2026-04-15 @ CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| K, R
2026-04-14 @ CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, K
2026-04-12 @ BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 12 Ch \| 1 E	1-4 \| 3 K

Age	29
Height	6' 0"
Weight	235 lb
Debut	2017-07-25

xwOBA Δ	-0.040
wOBA Δ	-0.013

Hitter Projections 20260.364 xwOBA \| 29 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B
2026-04-17 @ WSH0 HR \| 1 RBI / 14 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| 2B, 3 K, RBI
2026-04-15 @ CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| K, R
2026-04-14 @ CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, K
2026-04-12 @ BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 12 Ch \| 1 E	1-4 \| 3 K

Rafael Devers

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail