Mithrandir Metrics
Player AZ Refreshed Oct 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / AZ

Ildemaro Vargas

Player · Bats/Throws S/R · 5' 11", 202 lb · Age 35

Cards
23
Modules
2
Live Δ
yes
Club AZ Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2024303216719.246.295.316.611
2025121123130.270.292.383.675
20264866211593.254.298.377.675
10 Seasons17991904182919.250.292.362.654
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-17
31
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
37
Defense3 metrics
58
Speed3 metrics
41
Plate skills12 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-17
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.6%
19
Exit velocity87.0
39
Hard-hit%35.7%
38
xBA0.300
30
xSLG0.406
15
xwOBA0.297
45
BB%5.5%
18
Bat speed68.5
35
K%10.1%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength84.5 · 1B
25
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
81
Range Runs1.3 · 1B
69
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · 1B
72
Bolts1.0 · 1B
11
Sprint Speed27.1 · 1B
40
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-10-17
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.6% · rebadged research
12
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.7% · rebadged research
14
Correct Decisions60.1% · rebadged research
7
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313 · validated
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline88
7
Fastball Stuff+61
0
Mithrandir Stuff+65
2
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.272 · borderline
84
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
73
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
81
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · insufficient sample
14
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.408 · validated
2
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Vargas, Ildemaro · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.301 0.297 2026-10-06: 0.2972026-10-07: 0.2972026-10-08: 0.2972026-10-09: 0.2972026-10-10: 0.2972026-10-11: 0.2972026-10-12: 0.2972026-10-13: 0.2972026-10-14: 0.2972026-10-15: 0.2972026-10-16: 0.2972026-10-17: 0.297 2026-10-06 2026-10-17 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Vargas, Ildemaro · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 38%38%Whiff: 13%13%Zone contact: 93%93%Contact: 87%87%Hard hit: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vargas, Ildemaro · 2026 arsenal snapshot Other: 47.9%Eephus: 37.5%Slow Curve: 14.6% FA48% · 67 mphprimary pitch FA 48%EP 38%CS 15% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vargas, Ildemaro · 2026 arsenal snapshot 6″12″18″24″ Other: 48% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 4″ drop, 67.2 mphFA67 mphEephus: 38% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 41.5 mphEP41 mphSlow Curve: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 7″ drop, 56.6 mphCS57 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 75.0% 12 61 limited sample
CB 25.0% 4 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ--
wOBA Δ--

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.1σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.325
xwOBA (deserved)0.297

Vargas’s wOBA sits at 0.325, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.297 — a gap of 0.029, -1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 506 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

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Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting12026-08-05Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding222026-09-221 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.218
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

No projection links or recent game log rows are available yet.