Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 31 |
| Height | 6' 4" |
| Weight | 220 lb |
| Debut | 2019-04-29 |
Player profile / Cleveland Guardians
Nathaniel Lowe
1B · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 4", 220 lb · Age 31
Club Cleveland Guardians
Position 1B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 565 | 62 | 129 | 16 | 2 | .265 | .361 | .401 | .762 |
| 2025 | 609 | 64 | 123 | 18 | 1 | .228 | .307 | .381 | .688 |
| 2026 | 429 | 38 | 96 | 17 | 0 | .252 | .317 | .444 | .761 |
| 8 Seasons | 3859 | 436 | 892 | 124 | 15 | .262 | .344 | .426 | .770 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
76
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.325 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.337 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.333 |
| Observed weight | 68% |
xwOBA
0.309
0.320
0.333
0.345
0.357
wOBA
0.331
0.344
0.359
0.374
0.387
ISO
0.155
0.168
0.183
0.197
0.210
K%
21.0%
22.1%
23.3%
24.4%
25.5%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
64
Exit velocity89.6
72
Hard-hit%42.6%
71
xBA0.365
91
xSLG0.587
77
xwOBA0.337
83
+16 vs proj
BB%9.2%
58
-20 vs proj
Bat speed72.6
86
K%22.4%
53
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
14
Range Runs-2.7 · 1B
28
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
11
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.0% · rebadged research
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9% · rebadged research
41
Correct Decisions68.1% · rebadged research
72
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
30
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
69
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.317 · borderline
13
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
6
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290 · validated thin sample
27
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · insufficient sample
17
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344 · validated
77
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
237 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.042 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Lowe’s wOBA sits at 0.359, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.337 — a gap of 0.022, -0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 478 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bell, Josh MIN · L | 0.75 | Avg exit velocityGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Machado, Manny SD · R | 0.73 | Isolated powerPull rate | Player · Projection |
| Jeffers, Ryan MIN · R | 0.72 | Chase ratePull rate | Player · Projection |
| Jung, Josh TEX · R | 0.70 | Sprint speedBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 5 | 2026-10-12 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
| Fielding | 28 | 2026-10-15 | 4 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.773 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| 2026-08-15 vs SD0 HR | 0 RBI / 11 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K |
| 2026-05-20 @ PHI0 HR | 3 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | 2 2B, 2 K, 3 RBI |
| 2026-04-17 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | K |
| 2026-04-12 vs LAA0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | 3 BB, K |
| 2026-04-11 vs LAA0 HR | 3 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, K, 3 RBI |