Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 34 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 218 lb |
| Debut | 2012-08-09 |
Player profile / San Diego Padres
Manny Machado
3B · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 218 lb · Age 34
Club San Diego Padres
Position 3B
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 643 | 77 | 163 | 29 | 11 | .275 | .325 | .472 | .797 |
| 2025 | 678 | 91 | 169 | 27 | 14 | .275 | .335 | .460 | .795 |
| 2026 | 395 | 46 | 69 | 19 | 2 | .201 | .289 | .413 | .702 |
| 15 Seasons | 8590 | 1128 | 2138 | 388 | 115 | .275 | .335 | .483 | .818 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
65
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.331 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.321 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.324 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.301
0.312
0.324
0.336
0.347
wOBA
0.294
0.308
0.324
0.339
0.354
ISO
0.170
0.183
0.198
0.212
0.225
K%
19.3%
20.5%
21.7%
23.0%
24.1%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
76
Exit velocity90.0
73
Hard-hit%43.8%
71
xBA0.314
41
xSLG0.562
68
xwOBA0.321
64
BB%11.2%
78
+37 vs proj
Bat speed72.8
87
K%22.2%
51
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength87.3 · 3B
59
Outs Above Avg6.0 · 3B
93
Range Runs4.7 · 3B
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.2 · 3B
5
Sprint Speed25.1 · 3B
6
SB Success Rate50.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.9% · rebadged research
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.3% · rebadged research
68
Correct Decisions68.5% · rebadged research
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.263 · borderline
92
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
83
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
29
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.354 · insufficient sample
12
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372 · validated
9
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.315 · validated
99
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
183 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.016 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Machado’s wOBA sits at 0.324, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.321 — a gap of 0.003, -0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 401 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walker, Christian HOU · R | 0.85 | Chase rateBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Pederson, Joc TEX · L | 0.78 | Ground-ball rateFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Bell, Josh MIN · L | 0.77 | Chase rateFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Sheets, Gavin SD · L | 0.70 | Walk ratexwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 4 | 2026-06-28 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.340 xwOBA | 26 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 vs LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |
| 2026-04-17 @ LAA0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-15 vs SEA0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, K, R |
| 2026-04-14 vs SEA0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 |
| 2026-04-12 vs COL0 HR | 2 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 1-1 | 2 BB, 2 RBI |