Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 34 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 218 lb |
| Debut | 2012-08-09 |
Player profile / San Diego Padres
Manny Machado
3B · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 218 lb · Age 34
Club San Diego Padres
Position 3B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 643 | 77 | 163 | 29 | 11 | .275 | .325 | .472 | .797 |
| 2025 | 678 | 91 | 169 | 27 | 14 | .275 | .335 | .460 | .795 |
| 2026 | 582 | 69 | 111 | 24 | 4 | .219 | .306 | .403 | .709 |
| 15 Seasons | 8777 | 1151 | 2180 | 393 | 117 | .275 | .336 | .481 | .817 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
74
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.331 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.332 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.332 |
| Observed weight | 73% |
xwOBA
0.311
0.321
0.332
0.342
0.352
wOBA
0.301
0.313
0.326
0.339
0.350
ISO
0.158
0.168
0.180
0.191
0.202
K%
19.4%
20.3%
21.4%
22.5%
23.4%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
68
Exit velocity90.2
79
Hard-hit%44.9%
80
xBA0.331
65
xSLG0.564
71
xwOBA0.332
79
BB%11.3%
82
+39 vs proj
Bat speed72.7
87
K%21.6%
55
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength87.3 · 3B
53
Outs Above Avg7.0 · 3B
93
Range Runs4.9 · 3B
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.6 · 3B
3
Sprint Speed25.1 · 3B
6
SB Success Rate33.3% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.5% · rebadged research
66
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.5% · rebadged research
67
Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research
78
Resists FastballwOBA 0.369 · validated
11
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
73
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
78
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.264 · insufficient sample
87
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
38
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
30
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344 · validated
79
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
245 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.008 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.014 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Machado’s wOBA sits at 0.326, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.332 — a gap of 0.006, 0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 593 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bell, Josh MIN · L | 0.79 | Fly-ball rateChase rate | Player · Projection |
| Walker, Christian HOU · R | 0.78 | Fly-ball rateIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
| Lowe, Nathaniel CIN · L | 0.75 | Barrel rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
| Sheets, Gavin SD · L | 0.72 | Walk rateOppo rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 6 | 2026-07-28 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
| Fielding | 16 | 2026-09-01 | 1 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.095 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.340 xwOBA | 26 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ CLE0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |
| 2026-05-20 vs LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |
| 2026-04-17 @ LAA0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-15 vs SEA0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, K, R |
| 2026-04-14 vs SEA0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 |