Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 29 |
| Height | 6' 4" |
| Weight | 237 lb |
| Debut | 2019-06-09 |
Player profile / Houston Astros
Yordan Álvarez
DH · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 4", 237 lb · Age 29
Club Houston Astros
Position DH
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 635 | 88 | 170 | 35 | 6 | .308 | .392 | .567 | .959 |
| 2025 | 199 | 17 | 45 | 6 | 1 | .273 | .367 | .430 | .797 |
| 2026 | 692 | 105 | 179 | 42 | 1 | .316 | .432 | .601 | 1.033 |
| 8 Seasons | 3559 | 534 | 907 | 212 | 10 | .300 | .397 | .578 | .975 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
99
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.391 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.439 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.428 |
| Observed weight | 76% |
xwOBA
0.406
0.416
0.428
0.439
0.450
wOBA
0.428
0.439
0.452
0.465
0.476
ISO
0.235
0.248
0.262
0.276
0.289
K%
15.8%
16.8%
17.8%
18.8%
19.8%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.1%
99
Exit velocity94.4
99
Hard-hit%54.2%
98
xBA0.402
99
xSLG0.801
99
xwOBA0.439
100
BB%15.3%
98
Bat speed74.9
98
K%17.7%
80
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength88.2 · LF
11
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
9
Arm Runs-0.6 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-2.3 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-5.0 · DH
2
Sprint Speed25.4 · DH
9
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.7% · rebadged research
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1% · rebadged research
62
Correct Decisions65.4% · rebadged research
41
Resists FastballwOBA 0.392 · validated
4
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
62
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.341 · borderline
2
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
1
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.327 · validated thin sample
2
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.387 · insufficient sample
1
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374 · validated
17
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.048 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.060 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Álvarez’s wOBA sits at 0.452, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.439 — a gap of 0.013, -0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 713 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alonso, Pete BAL · R | 0.45 | Chase rateAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Bauers, Jake MIL · L | 0.41 | Swing lengthHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Soto, Juan NYM · L | 0.34 | Barrel rateSprint speed | Player · Projection |
| Rice, Ben NYY · L | 0.32 | Swing lengthIsolated power | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 13 | 2026-08-29 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
| Fielding | 6 | 2026-09-30 | 3 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +1.300 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| 2026-08-15 vs SEA0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, R |
| 2026-05-20 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 |
| 2026-04-20 @ CLE0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-5 |
| 2026-04-17 vs STL1 HR | 1 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | HR, RBI, R |
| 2026-04-15 vs COL1 HR | 1 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 2-3 | HR, 2B, BB |