Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	635	88	170	35	6	.308	.392	.567	.959
2025	199	17	45	6	1	.273	.367	.430	.797
2026	609	92	157	37	1	.316	.433	.602	1.035
8 Seasons	3476	521	885	207	10	.300	.396	.578	.974

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-04

99

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

96

Defense2 metrics

10

Speed2 metrics

4

Plate skills10 metrics

25

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-04

xwOBA preseason	0.391
xwOBA current pace	0.450
xwOBA rolling p50	0.434
Observed weight	74%

xwOBA

0.411 0.422 0.434 0.446 0.458

wOBA

0.433 0.445 0.458 0.472 0.484

ISO

0.233 0.247 0.263 0.278 0.292

K%

15.7% 16.7% 17.8% 18.9% 19.9%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-04

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%10.5%

99

Exit velocity94.5

99

Hard-hit%53.6%

97

xBA0.410

99

xSLG0.830

100

xwOBA0.450

100

BB%15.6%

98 +18 vs proj

Bat speed74.9

97

K%17.7%

78

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Strength88.2 · LF

14

Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF

7

Arm Runs-0.4 · LF

Small sample

Range Runs-2.3 · LF

Small sample

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-4.8 · DH

1

Sprint Speed25.2 · DH

7

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-04

Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.6% · rebadged research

61

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7% · rebadged research

55

Correct Decisions65.7% · rebadged research

45

Resists FastballwOBA 0.390 · validated

3

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103

63

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.339 · borderline

2

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample

1

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.308 · validated thin sample

8

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.379 · insufficient sample

2

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.387 · validated

6

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Yordan Álvarez's tools (89) outpace production (76) by 13 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High; Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-9.8° Current 30° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

258 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.3σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.458

xwOBA (deserved)0.450

Álvarez’s wOBA sits at 0.458, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.450 — a gap of 0.009, -0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 622 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Bauers, Jake MIL · L	0.37	Walk rateSwing length	Player · Projection
Soto, Juan NYM · L	0.37	Barrel rateWhiff rate	Player · Projection
Alonso, Pete BAL · R	0.37	Avg exit velocitySprint speed	Player · Projection
Ohtani, Shohei LAD · L	0.31	Hard-hit rateBarrel rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	13	2026-08-29	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	3	2026-08-30	4 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.128

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.392 xwOBA \| 18 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, R
2026-05-20 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-4
2026-04-20 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-5
2026-04-17 vs STL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| HR, RBI, R
2026-04-15 vs COL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-3 \| HR, 2B, BB

Age	29
Height	6' 4"
Weight	237 lb
Debut	2019-06-09

xwOBA Δ	+0.058
wOBA Δ	+0.067

Hitter Projections 20260.392 xwOBA \| 18 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, R
2026-05-20 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-4
2026-04-20 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-5
2026-04-17 vs STL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| HR, RBI, R
2026-04-15 vs COL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-3 \| HR, 2B, BB

Yordan Álvarez

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail