Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 29 |
| Height | 6' 4" |
| Weight | 237 lb |
| Debut | 2019-06-09 |
Player profile / Houston Astros
Yordan Álvarez
DH · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 4", 237 lb · Age 29
Club Houston Astros
Position DH
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 635 | 88 | 170 | 35 | 6 | .308 | .392 | .567 | .959 |
| 2025 | 199 | 17 | 45 | 6 | 1 | .273 | .367 | .430 | .797 |
| 2026 | 430 | 65 | 114 | 31 | 1 | .320 | .430 | .635 | 1.065 |
| 8 Seasons | 3297 | 494 | 842 | 201 | 10 | .300 | .394 | .581 | .975 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
99
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.391 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.474 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.446 |
| Observed weight | 66% |
xwOBA
0.419
0.432
0.446
0.460
0.473
wOBA
0.432
0.447
0.463
0.479
0.494
ISO
0.238
0.255
0.274
0.293
0.310
K%
15.4%
16.6%
17.9%
19.3%
20.5%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%12.0%
99
Exit velocity94.7
99
Hard-hit%53.1%
96
xBA0.422
99
xSLG0.899
99
xwOBA0.474
100
BB%14.5%
96
+18 vs proj
Bat speed74.9
98
K%17.8%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
11
Arm Runs-0.3 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-1.6 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.4 · DH
1
Sprint Speed24.8 · DH
4
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.9% · rebadged research
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0% · rebadged research
62
Correct Decisions65.7% · rebadged research
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.346 · borderline
1
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
0
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302 · validated thin sample
10
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample
14
Resists FastballwOBA 0.404 · validated
2
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389 · validated
7
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
197 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.082 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.071 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Álvarez’s wOBA sits at 0.463, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.474 — a gap of 0.011, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 433 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohtani, Shohei LAD · L | 0.42 | Walk rateHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Bauers, Jake MIL · L | 0.35 | Swing lengthBat speed | Player · Projection |
| Judge, Aaron NYY · R | 0.32 | Barrel rateAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Trout, Mike LAA · R | 0.32 | Pull rateIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 7 | 2026-07-11 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| 2026-05-20 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 |
| 2026-04-20 @ CLE0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-5 |
| 2026-04-17 vs STL1 HR | 1 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | HR, RBI, R |
| 2026-04-15 vs COL1 HR | 1 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 2-3 | HR, 2B, BB |
| 2026-04-14 vs COL0 HR | 2 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, K, 2 RBI |