Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 27 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 185 lb |
| Debut | 2021-08-17 |
Player profile / Miami Marlins
Otto Lopez
SS · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 10", 185 lb · Age 27
Club Miami Marlins
Position SS
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 434 | 49 | 109 | 6 | 20 | .270 | .313 | .377 | .690 |
| 2025 | 594 | 66 | 134 | 15 | 15 | .246 | .305 | .368 | .673 |
| 2026 | 591 | 82 | 166 | 10 | 29 | .304 | .338 | .443 | .781 |
| 5 Seasons | 1630 | 197 | 415 | 31 | 64 | .276 | .321 | .399 | .720 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
59
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.323 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.325 |
| Observed weight | 73% |
xwOBA
0.305
0.315
0.325
0.336
0.345
wOBA
0.342
0.354
0.367
0.380
0.392
ISO
0.128
0.137
0.147
0.158
0.167
K%
11.8%
12.5%
13.4%
14.3%
15.1%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
54
Exit velocity88.6
58
Hard-hit%41.4%
64
+17 vs proj
xBA0.329
61
xSLG0.492
46
xwOBA0.323
72
BB%5.0%
14
-18 vs proj
Bat speed69.4
46
K%13.2%
94
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · SS
93
Arm Strength89.9 · SS
72
Outs Above Avg11.0 · SS
97
Range Runs8.5 · SS
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.9 · SS
96
Bolts3.0 · SS
35
SB Success Rate86.7% · SS
71
Sprint Speed28.5 · SS
80
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.5% · rebadged research
41
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.1% · rebadged research
8
Correct Decisions62.8% · rebadged research
19
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
15
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.337 · borderline
4
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · insufficient sample
89
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
43
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · insufficient sample
76
Resists FastballwOBA 0.379 · validated
6
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.401 · validated
3
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.053 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Lopez’s wOBA sits at 0.367, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.323 — a gap of 0.044, -1.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 605 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Garcia, Maikel KC · R | 0.66 | Hard-hit rateIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
| Bohm, Alec PHI · R | 0.65 | Oppo rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
| Ortiz, Joey MIL · R | 0.62 | Whiff rateOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R | 0.61 | xwOBA on contactIsolated power | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 5 | 2026-07-05 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 18 | 2026-08-28 | 4 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.539 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.314 xwOBA | 12 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ CIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 0-5 | K |
| 2026-05-20 vs ATL0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 |
| 2026-04-20 vs STL0 HR | 1 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | 2B, BB, RBI |
| 2026-04-17 vs MIL1 HR | 2 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 3-5 | HR, 3B, 2 K |
| 2026-04-15 @ ATL0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | HBP, 2 K, R |