Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 27 |
| Height | 6' 0" |
| Weight | 225 lb |
| Debut | 2022-09-08 |
Player profile / St. Louis Cardinals
Alec Burleson
1B · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 0", 225 lb · Age 27
Club St. Louis Cardinals
Position 1B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 595 | 71 | 147 | 21 | 9 | .269 | .314 | .420 | .734 |
| 2025 | 546 | 54 | 144 | 18 | 5 | .290 | .343 | .459 | .802 |
| 2026 | 670 | 89 | 169 | 26 | 4 | .279 | .343 | .473 | .816 |
| 5 Seasons | 2211 | 252 | 546 | 74 | 22 | .271 | .327 | .437 | .764 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
92
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.341 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.374 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.366 |
| Observed weight | 76% |
xwOBA
0.346
0.356
0.366
0.376
0.385
wOBA
0.346
0.357
0.369
0.382
0.393
ISO
0.162
0.172
0.183
0.194
0.204
K%
15.3%
16.1%
17.0%
17.9%
18.7%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.1%
89
+25 vs proj
Exit velocity92.0
93
Hard-hit%50.3%
95
+25 vs proj
xBA0.361
89
xSLG0.653
90
xwOBA0.374
97
BB%8.3%
48
+15 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
79
K%18.0%
79
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 1B
45
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
47
Range Runs0.1 · 1B
53
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 1B
30
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
11
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.0% · rebadged research
23
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.9% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions64.1% · rebadged research
28
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332 · validated
61
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
46
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
34
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.332 · validated thin sample
1
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
68
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
30
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.036 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.031 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Burleson’s wOBA sits at 0.369, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.374 — a gap of 0.004, 0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 688 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canzone, Dominic SEA · L | 0.77 | Ground-ball rateFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Basallo, Samuel BAL · L | 0.73 | Ground-ball rateBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| García Jr., Luis WSH · L | 0.68 | Ground-ball rateStrikeout rate | Player · Projection |
| Bell, Josh MIN · L | 0.67 | Walk rateWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 11 | 2026-09-06 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
| Fielding | 27 | 2026-09-24 | 1 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.218 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| 2026-08-15 @ CHC1 HR | 2 RBI / 10 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | HR, BB, 2 RBI |
| 2026-05-20 vs PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 12 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | BB, HBP |
| 2026-04-20 @ MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 12 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |
| 2026-04-17 @ HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 11 Ch | 1 E | 2-4 | 2B, BB, K |
| 2026-04-15 vs CLE0 HR | 2 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | 2 K, 2 RBI |