Reference layer
Current snapshot
| MLB bio context is unavailable. |
Player profile / TEX
Ezequiel Duran
Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 10", 185 lb · Age 27
Club TEX
Position --
Roster profile
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 285 | 26 | 66 | 3 | 1 | .246 | .288 | .321 | .609 |
| 2025 | 219 | 16 | 46 | 0 | 11 | .224 | .266 | .293 | .559 |
| 2026 | 597 | 71 | 140 | 17 | 12 | .260 | .320 | .419 | .739 |
| 5 Seasons | 1760 | 193 | 413 | 39 | 36 | .254 | .304 | .386 | .690 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
52
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
44
Exit velocity87.9
50
Hard-hit%39.1%
55
xBA0.329
64
xSLG0.500
50
xwOBA0.300
48
BB%7.5%
38
Bat speed69.6
49
K%23.5%
47
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · SS
91
Arm Strength97.7 · SS
98
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
47
Range Runs12.6 · SS
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · SS
58
Bolts15.0 · SS
70
SB Success Rate73.3% · SS
33
Sprint Speed28.9 · SS
88
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.1% · rebadged research
32
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research
52
Correct Decisions65.4% · rebadged research
42
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.353 · borderline
0
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
44
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.315 · validated thin sample
5
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
99
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
66
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376 · validated
16
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
274 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Duran’s wOBA sits at 0.343, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.300 — a gap of 0.044, -1.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 612 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Realmuto, J.T. PHI · R | 0.77 | Sweet-spot ratexwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Turner, Trea PHI · R | 0.75 | Hard-hit rateOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R | 0.71 | Barrel ratePull rate | Player · Projection |
| Griffin, Konnor PIT · R | 0.70 | Avg exit velocityHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-07-27 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
| Fielding | 31 | 2026-09-27 | 4 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +0.515 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| No projection links or recent game log rows are available yet. |