Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	237	22	31	5	3	.150	.249	.257	.506
2025	569	80	118	16	6	.234	.316	.401	.717
2026	414	65	85	21	11	.245	.356	.490	.846
5 Seasons	1574	207	292	50	24	.215	.311	.390	.701

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

86

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

86

Defense4 metrics

43

Speed3 metrics

63

Plate skills10 metrics

50

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17

xwOBA preseason	0.319
xwOBA current pace	0.401
xwOBA rolling p50	0.373
Observed weight	66%

xwOBA

0.349 0.361 0.373 0.386 0.397

wOBA

0.358 0.373 0.388 0.404 0.419

ISO

0.187 0.200 0.214 0.229 0.241

K%

15.6% 16.5% 17.5% 18.5% 19.4%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%10.2%

97 +49 vs proj

Exit velocity90.5

80

Hard-hit%46.4%

81 +47 vs proj

xBA0.342

71

xSLG0.677

91

xwOBA0.401

99 +50 vs proj

BB%14.2%

94 +26 vs proj

Bat speed72.3

81

K%16.2%

83

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.1 · 3B

59

Arm Strength85.3 · 3B

38

Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B

28

Range Runs-0.1 · 3B

48

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-0.0 · 3B

41

SB Success Rate87.5% · 3B

71

Sprint Speed28.3 · 3B

77

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-17

Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.7% · rebadged research

96

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2% · rebadged research

77

Correct Decisions74.1% · rebadged research

96

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113

96

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline

33

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample

29

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.310 · validated thin sample

6

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.356 · insufficient sample

11

Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated

21

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364 · validated

35

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Miguel Vargas's tools (87) outpace production (92) by -5 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-9.6° Current 30° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

207 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.5σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.388

xwOBA (deserved)0.401

Vargas’s wOBA sits at 0.388, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.401 — a gap of 0.013, 0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 431 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Trout, Mike LAA · R	0.65	Avg exit velocityBarrel rate	Player · Projection
Bleday, JJ CIN · L	0.61	Max exit velocityWalk rate	Player · Projection
Soto, Juan NYM · L	0.55	Pull rateBarrel rate	Player · Projection
Bauers, Jake MIL · L	0.55	Chase rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	9	2026-07-10	Impact contact was the main driver

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.306 xwOBA \| 14 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| BB
2026-04-17 @ ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| K, R
2026-04-15 vs TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 11 Ch \| 0 E	0-4
2026-04-14 vs TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| BB, R
2026-04-12 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 1 E	0-4 \| HBP, 2 K

Age	26
Height	6' 2"
Weight	225 lb
Debut	2022-08-03

xwOBA Δ	+0.095
wOBA Δ	+0.082

Hitter Projections 20260.306 xwOBA \| 14 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| BB
2026-04-17 @ ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| K, R
2026-04-15 vs TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 11 Ch \| 0 E	0-4
2026-04-14 vs TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| BB, R
2026-04-12 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 1 E	0-4 \| HBP, 2 K

Miguel Vargas

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail