Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 28 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 205 lb |
| Debut | 2022-07-23 |
Player profile / Cincinnati Reds
Jj Bleday
LF · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 2", 205 lb · Age 28
Club Cincinnati Reds
Position LF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 642 | 74 | 139 | 20 | 2 | .243 | .324 | .437 | .761 |
| 2025 | 344 | 48 | 65 | 14 | 1 | .212 | .294 | .404 | .698 |
| 2026 | 288 | 36 | 59 | 16 | 4 | .243 | .352 | .494 | .846 |
| 5 Seasons | 1815 | 214 | 347 | 65 | 16 | .219 | .314 | .410 | .724 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
75
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.307 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.368 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.342 |
| Observed weight | 57% |
xwOBA
0.314
0.327
0.342
0.356
0.369
wOBA
0.363
0.380
0.400
0.419
0.436
ISO
0.187
0.206
0.226
0.246
0.265
K%
18.3%
19.5%
20.9%
22.3%
23.5%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.2%
80
+31 vs proj
Exit velocity88.9
59
Hard-hit%42.9%
67
+22 vs proj
xBA0.345
74
xSLG0.605
78
xwOBA0.368
92
+53 vs proj
BB%13.4%
91
+22 vs proj
Bat speed71.4
74
K%19.6%
68
+29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · LF
52
Arm Strength98.5 · LF
89
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
11
Range Runs-1.4 · LF
31
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · LF
52
Sprint Speed27.5 · LF
53
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.9% · rebadged research
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0% · rebadged research
78
Correct Decisions71.3% · rebadged research
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.351 · borderline
1
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample
12
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
94
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
39
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349 · validated
31
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
107 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.071 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.103 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Bleday’s wOBA sits at 0.400, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.368 — a gap of 0.032, -1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 291 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muncy, Max LAD · L | 0.63 | Whiff rateFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Vargas, Miguel CWS · R | 0.61 | Max exit velocityWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| Rushing, Dalton LAD · L | 0.59 | Pull rateBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Rice, Ben NYY · L | 0.56 | Chase rateFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 1 | 2026-05-10 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.297 xwOBA | 17 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | K, 2 R |