Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	171	15	35	4	0	.229	.306	.327	.633
2025	432	53	100	18	8	.254	.313	.435	.748
2026	332	36	66	5	5	.224	.299	.327	.626
5 Seasons	1366	149	283	38	15	.230	.296	.361	.657

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18

62

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

60

Defense4 metrics

32

Speed3 metrics

56

Plate skills10 metrics

65

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18

xwOBA preseason	0.313
xwOBA current pace	0.307
xwOBA rolling p50	0.309
Observed weight	61%

xwOBA

0.287 0.298 0.309 0.321 0.332

wOBA

0.273 0.288 0.305 0.321 0.336

ISO

0.093 0.106 0.120 0.134 0.147

K%

23.4% 24.6% 25.9% 27.3% 28.5%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.0%

66

Exit velocity89.8

70

Hard-hit%40.7%

57

xBA0.340

68

xSLG0.538

60

xwOBA0.307

49

BB%9.2%

57

Bat speed72.8

87

K%26.4%

29 -16 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-0.2 · 3B

17

Arm Strength88.4 · 3B

67

Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 3B

12

Range Runs-1.7 · 3B

32

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs1.1 · 3B

74

SB Success Rate83.3% · 3B

57

Sprint Speed26.9 · 3B

37

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-18

Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.0% · rebadged research

68

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.1% · rebadged research

70

Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research

79

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106

75

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.270 · borderline

84

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample

17

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample

67

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample

99

Resists FastballwOBA 0.338 · validated

53

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364 · validated

35

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Brett Baty's tools (62) outpace production (58) by 4 points. Primary finding: high exit velocity but low barrel rate — bat-to-ball efficiency is leaving power on the table. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High; Chase Rate Problem.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-13.5° Current 34° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

153 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.1σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.305

xwOBA (deserved)0.307

Baty’s wOBA sits at 0.305, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.307 — a gap of 0.003, 0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 349 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Riley, Austin ATL · R	0.73	Pull rateMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
García, Adolis PHI · R	0.73	Barrel rateWalk rate	Player · Projection
Merrill, Jackson SD · L	0.71	Sweet-spot rateBarrel rate	Player · Projection
Realmuto, J.T. PHI · R	0.71	Swing lengthGround-ball rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	2	2026-07-16	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.311 xwOBA \| 16 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ WSH0 HR \| 1 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| BB, RBI
2026-04-17 @ CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 1 E	0-2 \| K
2026-04-15 @ LAD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-14 @ LAD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 K
2026-04-12 vs ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K

Age	26
Height	6' 3"
Weight	210 lb
Debut	2022-08-17

xwOBA Δ	-0.004
wOBA Δ	-0.007

Hitter Projections 20260.311 xwOBA \| 16 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ WSH0 HR \| 1 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| BB, RBI
2026-04-17 @ CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 1 E	0-2 \| K
2026-04-15 @ LAD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-14 @ LAD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 K
2026-04-12 vs ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K

Brett Baty

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail