Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 29 |
| Height | 6' 1" |
| Weight | 225 lb |
| Debut | 2019-05-15 |
Player profile / Atlanta Braves
Austin Riley
3B · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 225 lb · Age 29
Club Atlanta Braves
Position 3B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 469 | 63 | 109 | 19 | 0 | .256 | .322 | .461 | .783 |
| 2025 | 447 | 54 | 108 | 16 | 2 | .260 | .309 | .428 | .737 |
| 2026 | 630 | 64 | 124 | 19 | 9 | .219 | .290 | .364 | .654 |
| 8 Seasons | 4119 | 544 | 974 | 188 | 16 | .263 | .328 | .473 | .801 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
73
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.5%
85
Exit velocity91.1
89
Hard-hit%44.4%
78
xBA0.328
60
xSLG0.608
82
xwOBA0.299
47
BB%8.0%
44
Bat speed74.0
94
K%31.0%
13
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 3B
29
Arm Strength87.2 · 3B
51
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 3B
81
Range Runs0.9 · 3B
64
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · 3B
43
SB Success Rate85.7% · 3B
67
Sprint Speed28.0 · 3B
65
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.0% · rebadged research
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.6% · rebadged research
58
Correct Decisions65.0% · rebadged research
37
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · borderline
74
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318 · validated
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
79
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266 · validated thin sample
84
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
57
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
70
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
275 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Riley’s wOBA sits at 0.304, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.299 — a gap of 0.005, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 677 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baty, Brett NYM · L | 0.80 | xwOBA on contactSwing length | Player · Projection |
| Crews, Dylan WSH · R | 0.79 | Max exit velocitySweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
| Lewis, Royce MIN · R | 0.78 | Sweet-spot rateIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
| Hernández, Teoscar LAD · R | 0.77 | Barrel rateHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 6 | 2026-10-01 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 36 | 2026-10-07 | 1 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +0.114 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| 2026-08-15 vs AZ0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | 2 K |
| 2026-05-20 @ MIA1 HR | 3 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | HR, BB, K |
| 2026-04-20 @ WSH0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 1 E | 0-4 | BB, 2 K, R |
| 2026-04-17 @ PHI2 HR | 4 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | 2 HR, 3 K, 4 RBI |
| 2026-04-15 vs MIA1 HR | 1 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | HR, 2B, RBI |