Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	381	46	87	12	0	.265	.357	.433	.790
2025	411	55	99	11	0	.272	.353	.434	.787
2026	295	36	69	10	1	.280	.386	.455	.841
4 Seasons	1131	142	265	34	1	.271	.363	.437	.800

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18

42

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

51

Defense2 metrics

21

Speed2 metrics

8

Plate skills10 metrics

38

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18

xwOBA preseason	0.322
xwOBA current pace	0.339
xwOBA rolling p50	0.332
Observed weight	59%

xwOBA

0.309 0.320 0.332 0.344 0.355

wOBA

0.355 0.372 0.391 0.409 0.426

ISO

0.137 0.151 0.166 0.182 0.196

K%

12.9% 14.2% 15.6% 17.0% 18.3%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.1%

67 +21 vs proj

Exit velocity86.9

33

Hard-hit%33.5%

26

xBA0.281

15

xSLG0.469

35

xwOBA0.339

77

BB%13.4%

90 +26 vs proj

Bat speed67.4

23

K%13.4%

92 +18 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B

12

Range Runs-2.0 · 1B

29

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-1.5 · 1B

11

Sprint Speed24.9 · 1B

4

SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-18

Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.5% · rebadged research

82

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research

54

Correct Decisions67.2% · rebadged research

61

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106

77

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · borderline

11

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.306 · insufficient sample

5

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291 · validated thin sample

24

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · insufficient sample

24

Resists FastballwOBA 0.359 · validated

17

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368 · validated

27

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

171 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.8σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.391

xwOBA (deserved)0.339

Horwitz’s wOBA sits at 0.391, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.339 — a gap of 0.052, -1.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 314 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

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Bregman, Alex CHC · R	0.70	Max exit velocitySwing length	Player · Projection
Kelly, Carson CHC · R	0.65	Swing lengthMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Pasquantino, Vinnie KC · L	0.61	Max exit velocityWhiff rate	Player · Projection
Hicks, Liam MIA · L	0.59	Max exit velocityIsolated power	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.320 xwOBA \| 13 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ STL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| HR, K, RBI
2026-04-17 vs TB0 HR \| 1 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	3-3 \| 2B, BB, RBI
2026-04-15 vs WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| HBP, K
2026-04-14 vs WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-2
2026-04-13 vs WSH1 HR \| 1 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, BB, RBI

Age	28
Height	5' 10"
Weight	204 lb
Debut	2023-06-18

xwOBA Δ	+0.019
wOBA Δ	+0.070

Hitter Projections 20260.320 xwOBA \| 13 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ STL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| HR, K, RBI
2026-04-17 vs TB0 HR \| 1 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	3-3 \| 2B, BB, RBI
2026-04-15 vs WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| HBP, K
2026-04-14 vs WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-2
2026-04-13 vs WSH1 HR \| 1 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, BB, RBI

Spencer Horwitz

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail