Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago Cubs Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago Cubs

Carson Kelly

C profile with live context, projection links, and Mithrandir card history when available.

Cards
3
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago Cubs Position C Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.293
xwOBA current pace0.319
xwOBA rolling p500.305
Observed weight44%
xwOBA
0.278 0.291 0.305 0.319 0.332
wOBA
0.357 0.379 0.404 0.429 0.452
ISO
0.099 0.115 0.133 0.151 0.167
K%
15.8% 17.2% 18.7% 20.2% 21.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.7%
62 +17 vs proj
Barrel%5.7%
59 +24 vs proj
Bat speed69.7
50
Exit velocity89.3
59
Hard-hit%41.1%
55 +17 vs proj
K%17.0%
79 +24 vs proj
xBA0.310
36
xSLG0.474
38
xwOBA0.319
58 +25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.3 · C
59
Catcher Throwing-1.3 · C
7
Framing Runs-2.5 · C
14
Pop Time1.9 · C
57
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · C
37
Sprint Speed25.6 · C
13
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1% · rebadged research
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.6% · rebadged research
86
Correct Decisions70.3% · rebadged research
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline
48
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
65
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290 · validated thin sample
18
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.362 · insufficient sample
7
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347 · validated
36
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Kelly, Carson · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3372026-05-19: 0.3432026-05-21: 0.3352026-05-23: 0.3242026-05-24: 0.3242026-05-25: 0.3222026-05-26: 0.3212026-05-28: 0.3232026-05-29: 0.3232026-05-30: 0.3232026-05-31: 0.3192026-06-01: 0.319 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Kelly, Carson · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 29%29%Whiff: 20%20%Zone contact: 92%92%Contact: 80%80%Hard hit: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 1"
Weight212 lb
Debut2016-09-05
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ+0.027
wOBA Δ+0.113

negative regression

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting32026-04-14Impact contact was the main driver
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.291 xwOBA | 16 HRProjection
2026-05-20 vs MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 10 Ch | 2 E0-3 | 2 K
2026-04-17 vs NYM0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 0 E1-4 | R
2026-04-14 @ PHI1 HR | 3 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E2-4 | HR, BB, 3 RBI
2026-04-13 @ PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 0 E1-2 | BB, R
2026-04-12 vs PIT0 HR | 1 RBI / 15 Ch | 0 E2-5 | 2B, K, RBI