Mithrandir Metrics
Player COL Refreshed Oct 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / COL

Troy Johnston

Player · Bats/Throws L/L · 5' 11", 206 lb · Age 29

Cards
11
Modules
2
Live Δ
yes
Club COL Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2025121123142.277.331.420.751
20264494111044.277.348.393.741
2 Seasons5705314186.277.344.399.743
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-16
54
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
53
Defense4 metrics
42
Speed3 metrics
23
Plate skills13 metrics
30
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.7%
8
Exit velocity89.4
69
Hard-hit%38.5%
52
xBA0.349
82
xSLG0.475
42
xwOBA0.323
73
BB%8.2%
46
Bat speed68.6
35
K%19.1%
72
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · RF
62
Arm Strength85.9 · RF
3
Outs Above Avg1.0 · RF
80
Range Runs-2.9 · RF
22
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · RF
40
SB Success Rate57.1% · RF
9
Sprint Speed26.2 · RF
21
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-10-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.2% · rebadged research
24
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5% · rebadged research
58
Correct Decisions63.6% · rebadged research
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
29
Changeup Stuff+88
4
Mithrandir Stuff+84
6
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · borderline
22
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
39
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284 · validated thin sample
41
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.314 · insufficient sample
80
Resists FastballwOBA 0.368 · validated
11
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
46
Slider Stuff+84
1
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Johnston, Troy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.301 0.323 2026-10-05: 0.3232026-10-06: 0.3232026-10-07: 0.3232026-10-08: 0.3232026-10-09: 0.3232026-10-10: 0.3232026-10-11: 0.3232026-10-12: 0.3232026-10-13: 0.3232026-10-14: 0.3232026-10-15: 0.3232026-10-16: 0.323 2026-10-05 2026-10-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Johnston, Troy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 36%36%Whiff: 23%23%Zone contact: 87%87%Contact: 77%77%Hard hit: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Johnston, Troy · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 70.8 mph Hard swing rate 9% Whiff / swing 23% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnston, Troy · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 57.1%Slider: 42.9% CH57% · 75 mphprimary pitch CH 57%SL 43% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnston, Troy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 57% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 75.4 mphCH75 mphSlider: 43% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 71.3 mphSL71 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 57.1% 20 88 limited sample
SL 42.9% 15 84 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ--
wOBA Δ--

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.3σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.358
xwOBA (deserved)0.323

Johnston’s wOBA sits at 0.358, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.323 — a gap of 0.035, -1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 466 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →
PlayerSimilarityAgrees onOpen
Larnach, Trevor MIN · L 0.64 xwOBA on contactFly-ball rate Player · Projection
Marsh, Brandon PHI · L 0.63 Pull rateWhiff rate Player · Projection
O'Hearn, Ryan PIT · L 0.62 Max exit velocityAvg exit velocity Player · Projection
Caratini, Victor MIN · L 0.60 Hard-hit rateAvg exit velocity Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting12026-03-24Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding102026-09-133 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +2.995
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.333 xwOBA | 9 HRProjection