Mithrandir Metrics
Player Colorado Rockies Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Colorado Rockies

Troy Johnston

RF · Bats/Throws L/L · 5' 11", 206 lb · Age 29

Cards
9
Modules
2
Live Δ
yes
Club Colorado Rockies Position RF Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2025121123142.277.331.420.751
20264023710244.288.359.407.766
2 Seasons5234913386.285.352.410.762
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
55
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
55
Defense4 metrics
32
Speed3 metrics
19
Plate skills13 metrics
26
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
xwOBA preseason0.306
xwOBA current pace0.331
xwOBA rolling p500.322
Observed weight65%
xwOBA
0.290 0.305 0.322 0.340 0.355
wOBA
0.340 0.355 0.371 0.387 0.401
ISO
0.110 0.125 0.142 0.158 0.173
K%
15.7% 17.2% 18.8% 20.4% 21.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
11 -42 vs proj
Exit velocity89.2
66
Hard-hit%39.1%
52
xBA0.351
81
xSLG0.483
43
xwOBA0.331
78
BB%8.4%
50 +17 vs proj
Bat speed68.5
35
K%17.6%
79 +39 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · RF
46
Arm Strength85.9 · RF
4
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
48
Range Runs-1.6 · RF
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · RF
31
SB Success Rate57.1% · RF
8
Sprint Speed26.1 · RF
19
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-08-31
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.6% · rebadged research
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.6% · rebadged research
56
Correct Decisions63.4% · rebadged research
24
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Changeup Stuff+91
6
Mithrandir Stuff+86
6
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.318 · borderline
10
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
34
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289 · validated thin sample
23
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
70
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372 · validated
10
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
41
Slider Stuff+85
1
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Johnston, Troy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.304 0.331 2026-08-20: 0.3262026-08-21: 0.3262026-08-22: 0.3262026-08-23: 0.3262026-08-24: 0.3262026-08-25: 0.3282026-08-26: 0.3282026-08-27: 0.3312026-08-28: 0.3312026-08-29: 0.3312026-08-30: 0.3312026-08-31: 0.331 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Johnston, Troy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 36%36%Whiff: 22%22%Zone contact: 88%88%Contact: 78%78%Hard hit: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Johnston, Troy · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 70.8 mph Hard swing rate 9% Whiff / swing 23% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnston, Troy · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 57.1%Slider: 42.9% CH57% · 75 mphprimary pitch CH 57%SL 43% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnston, Troy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 57% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 75.4 mphCH75 mphSlider: 43% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 71.3 mphSL71 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 57.1% 20 91 limited sample
SL 42.9% 15 85 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height5' 11"
Weight206 lb
Debut2025-07-29
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ-0.007
wOBA Δ+0.032

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.4σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.371
xwOBA (deserved)0.331

Johnston’s wOBA sits at 0.371, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.331 — a gap of 0.039, -1.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 415 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →
PlayerSimilarityAgrees onOpen
Larnach, Trevor MIN · L 0.67 xwOBA on contactFly-ball rate Player · Projection
Jung, Josh TEX · R 0.65 Strikeout rateWalk rate Player · Projection
Caratini, Victor MIN · L 0.64 Hard-hit rateAvg exit velocity Player · Projection
Smith, Dominic ATL · L 0.63 Ground-ball rateSprint speed Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting12026-03-24Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding82026-08-304 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.723
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.338 xwOBA | 9 HRProjection
2026-05-20 vs TEX0 HR | 1 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E1-4 | K, RBI, R
2026-04-20 vs LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E1-4 | K
2026-04-17 vs LAD0 HR | 1 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E0-4 | 2 K, RBI
2026-04-15 @ HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E0-0 | BB, HBP
2026-04-14 @ HOU0 HR | 1 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E1-1 | RBI