Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 23 |
| Height | 6' 1" |
| Weight | 220 lb |
| Debut | 2023-09-23 |
Player profile / Tampa Bay Rays
Junior Caminero
3B · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 220 lb · Age 23
Club Tampa Bay Rays
Position 3B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 177 | 15 | 41 | 6 | 2 | .248 | .299 | .424 | .723 |
| 2025 | 653 | 93 | 159 | 45 | 7 | .264 | .311 | .535 | .846 |
| 2026 | 602 | 85 | 149 | 37 | 3 | .283 | .369 | .535 | .904 |
| 4 Seasons | 1468 | 197 | 357 | 89 | 12 | .269 | .332 | .517 | .849 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
91
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.345 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.365 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.360 |
| Observed weight | 74% |
xwOBA
0.339
0.349
0.360
0.370
0.380
wOBA
0.377
0.389
0.402
0.416
0.428
ISO
0.221
0.231
0.243
0.254
0.265
K%
16.5%
17.3%
18.3%
19.2%
20.1%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.3%
95
Exit velocity93.3
97
Hard-hit%51.2%
95
xBA0.345
77
xSLG0.626
85
xwOBA0.365
96
BB%11.5%
84
+50 vs proj
Bat speed78.1
100
K%18.0%
76
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 3B
68
Arm Strength90.2 · 3B
75
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
28
Range Runs-12.5 · 3B
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.0 · 3B
12
Sprint Speed26.5 · 3B
27
SB Success Rate50.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.2% · rebadged research
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.2% · rebadged research
85
Correct Decisions66.5% · rebadged research
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
77
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
37
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289 · validated thin sample
24
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.381 · insufficient sample
2
Resists FastballwOBA 0.420 · validated
0
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.392 · validated
4
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
264 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.020 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.057 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Caminero’s wOBA sits at 0.402, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.365 — a gap of 0.037, -1.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 615 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caglianone, Jac KC · L | 0.38 | Barrel rateAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Walker, Jordan STL · R | 0.37 | Barrel rateMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Soderstrom, Tyler ATH · L | 0.36 | Walk rateWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
| Marte, Ketel AZ · L | 0.36 | Max exit velocitySprint speed | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 9 | 2026-08-11 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 21 | 2026-09-01 | 4 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.609 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.345 xwOBA | 31 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs BAL0 HR | 1 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-5 | 2 K, RBI |
| 2026-05-20 vs BAL0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 |
| 2026-04-20 vs CIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 |
| 2026-04-17 @ PIT0 HR | 1 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K, RBI |
| 2026-04-15 @ CWS1 HR | 2 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | HR, BB, K |