Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-11

Seth Lugo

KC · SP · throws R · age 37
Projected starter Opp K 23.5% Neutral
MatchupKC vs BOSopponent
Sample1152.0career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 16 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts4.5
P 51.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 51.1% Market -- Gap +10.8pp
FanDuel 134 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs15.5
P 48.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 48.0% Market 49.0% Gap +2.2pp
FanDuel 104 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
23
ERA5.04
26
BB%7.6%
68
K%17.4%
17
xwOBA allowed0.344
19
Barrel allowed7.3%
52 +17 vs proj
Fastball velo91.6
11
Hard-hit allowed43.7%
16
Whiff%16.3%
5
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Curveball Stuff+105
88
Cutter Stuff+99
28
Fastball Stuff+101
37
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Sinker Stuff+108
91
Slider Stuff+102
56
Changeup Stuff+106
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range14.6% to 25.0%
Opponent K23.5%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)