Mithrandir Metrics

PITCHER OUTS 2026-09-11 · saved artifact ROWS 12 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist

Lane Health 2026-09-11

Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Pitcher Outs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Signal caveat Market context only.

Pitcher outs is running as market context only right now. On the graded record to date the model's over/under probabilities have not shown reliable signal at posted lines, and daily recalibration is intentionally pulling them toward neutral. Treat this board as context, not conviction, while the sample accumulates.

665 / 300 fresh graded predictions. Auto-review at 300 fresh graded predictions (since 2026-07-01): the caveat lifts only when the calibration curve is monotone and Brier is at or under the base rate.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Pitcher Outs board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	Outs proj	IP	BF	Recent K	Recent BB	Best line
01	Sonny GrayBOS	BOS vs KCneutral	P 47.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	52.6%Under prob · Palantir	41.7%no-vig	+11.20%	17.00count	5.67leash	23.829volume	0.1891traffic	0.0676traffic	FanDuel -166 avg 1 books
02	Cade CavalliWSH	WSH vs LAAneutral	P 47.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	52.6%Under prob · Palantir	47.0%no-vig	+12.68%	16.03count	5.34leash	21.917volume	0.1934traffic	0.0651traffic	FanDuel -132 avg 1 books
03	Andrew AbbottCIN	CIN vs MILneutral	P 47.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	47.7%Over prob · Palantir	42.8%no-vig	+9.85%	16.08count	5.36leash	22.518volume	0.1623traffic	0.09traffic	FanDuel 118 avg 1 books
04	Chris SaleATL	ATL vs PHIneutral	P 47.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 18.5	47.6%Over prob · Palantir	43.1%no-vig	+4.81%	18.63count	6.21leash	24.892volume	0.2751traffic	0.0321traffic	FanDuel 116 avg 1 books
05	Framber ValdezDET	DET vs COLneutral	P 47.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 18.5	47.4%Over prob · Palantir	43.3%no-vig	+2.55%	18.01count	6.00leash	25.358volume	0.1809traffic	0.0899traffic	FanDuel 116 avg 1 books
06	Drew RasmussenTB	TB vs HOUneutral	P 47.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	52.5%Under prob · Palantir	49.6%no-vig	+21.49%	15.26count	5.09leash	20.978volume	0.2453traffic	0.0464traffic	FanDuel -118 avg 1 books
07	Aaron NolaPHI	PHI vs ATLneutral	P 47.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 16.5	52.2%Under prob · Palantir	49.6%no-vig	+3.40%	17.08count	5.69leash	23.695volume	0.2335traffic	0.0756traffic	FanDuel -118 avg 1 books
08	Seth LugoKC	KC vs BOSneutral	P 48.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	48.0%Over prob · Palantir	45.8%no-vig	+12.96%	16.45count	5.48leash	23.255volume	0.2305traffic	0.0586traffic	FanDuel 104 avg 1 books
09	Yusei KikuchiLAA	LAA vs WSHneutral	P 47.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 15.5	52.4%Under prob · Palantir	50.6%no-vig	+0.27%	15.88count	5.29leash	21.894volume	0.23traffic	0.084traffic	FanDuel -112 avg 1 books
10	Dustin MayMIL	MIL vs CINneutral	P 47.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 15.5	52.4%Under prob · Palantir	50.8%no-vig	+3.04%	15.47count	5.16leash	19.834volume	0.1933traffic	0.0833traffic	FanDuel -112 avg 1 books
11	Max ScherzerTOR	TOR vs BALneutral	P 47.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	47.4%Over prob · Palantir	46.2%no-vig	+1.29%	14.85count	4.95leash	21.06volume	0.2113traffic	0.1025traffic	FanDuel 102 avg 1 books
12	Chris BassittBAL	BAL vs TORneutral	P 47.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 17.5	47.5%Over prob · Palantir	47.4%no-vig	+16.06%	15.74count	5.25leash	23.816volume	0.1449traffic	0.0932traffic	FanDuel -104 avg 1 books