Mithrandir Metrics
Mithrandir+ / v1.0 / production

SEAGER+ plate discipline index.

A 100-anchored plate-discipline index built from rate-based Selection Tendency minus Hittable Pitches Taken.

Next-year BB% r
0.648
Next-year chase r
-0.692
Next-year ISO r
0.274
Version v1.0 Status production Snapshot 2026-07-27
Definition / formula

2024 Statcast pitch-event data, using public SEAGER-inspired swing/take xRV by count and normalized location.

SEAGER+ = 100 + z(Selection Tendency - Hittable Pitches Taken) * 10
Method note

The original implementation used a run-value average and produced ISO r 0.023.

Method note

A methodology audit restored rate-based ST - HPT and moved ISO r to 0.274.

Method note

Alternative-target diagnostics revealed the strongest signal is plate discipline: BB% r 0.648 and chase-rate r -0.692.

Validation / what it does not measure
Next-year BB% r 0.648 Next-year chase r -0.692 Next-year ISO r 0.274
Does not measure

It is not promoted as a primary power predictor; ISO correlation missed the original 0.300 gate by 0.026.

Does not measure

It does not yet include called-strike probability weighting or bat-tracking quality on correct swings.

Top 20 / current cached snapshot
Rank Player Metric Sample Status
1 McGonigle, Kevin 116 290 qualified
2 Martin, Austin 114 208 qualified
3 Vargas, Miguel 113 285 qualified
4 Torkelson, Spencer 112 258 qualified
5 Kurtz, Nick 112 296 qualified
6 Swanson, Dansby 112 251 qualified
7 Freeman, Freddie 111 281 qualified
8 Tucker, Kyle 111 271 qualified
9 Soto, Juan 111 205 qualified
10 DeLauter, Chase 110 241 qualified
11 Trout, Mike 110 268 qualified
12 Jensen, Carter 110 238 qualified
13 Reynolds, Bryan 110 282 qualified
14 Acuña Jr.., Ronald 110 205 qualified
15 Ward, Taylor 110 302 qualified
16 Grisham, Trent 109 228 qualified
17 Hicks, Liam 109 236 qualified
18 Murakami, Munetaka 109 237 qualified
19 Collins, Isaac 109 226 qualified
20 Judge, Aaron 109 247 qualified