Mithrandir Metrics

Version v1.0 Status production Snapshot 2026-10-25

Definition / formula

2024 Statcast pitch-event data, using public SEAGER-inspired swing/take xRV by count and normalized location.

SEAGER+ = 100 + z(Selection Tendency - Hittable Pitches Taken) * 10

Method note

The original implementation used a run-value average and produced ISO r 0.023.

Method note

A methodology audit restored rate-based ST - HPT and moved ISO r to 0.274.

Method note

Alternative-target diagnostics revealed the strongest signal is plate discipline: BB% r 0.648 and chase-rate r -0.692.

Validation / what it does not measure

Next-year BB% r 0.648 Next-year chase r -0.692 Next-year ISO r 0.274

Does not measure

It is not promoted as a primary power predictor; ISO correlation missed the original 0.300 gate by 0.026.

Does not measure

It does not yet include called-strike probability weighting or bat-tracking quality on correct swings.

Top 20 / current cached snapshot

Rank	Player	Metric	Sample	Status
1	Vargas, Miguel	115	466	qualified
2	Martin, Austin	114	242	qualified
3	McGonigle, Kevin	114	484	qualified
4	Jensen, Carter	113	389	qualified
5	Tucker, Kyle	113	424	qualified
6	Torkelson, Spencer	113	410	qualified
7	Swanson, Dansby	113	310	qualified
8	Kurtz, Nick	113	300	qualified
9	Torres, Gleyber	112	305	qualified
10	Seager, Corey	112	346	qualified
11	Hernández, Heriberto	112	304	qualified
12	Stephenson, Tyler	112	319	qualified
13	DeLauter, Chase	111	377	qualified
14	Hoskins, Rhys	111	211	qualified
15	Vivas, Jorbit	111	244	qualified
16	Wood, James	110	407	qualified
17	Smith, Will	110	250	qualified
18	Reynolds, Bryan	110	463	qualified
19	Marsee, Jakob	110	434	qualified
20	Ward, Taylor	110	380	qualified