Mithrandir Metrics

Version v1.0 Status production Snapshot 2026-09-09

Definition / formula

2024 Statcast pitch-event data, using public SEAGER-inspired swing/take xRV by count and normalized location.

SEAGER+ = 100 + z(Selection Tendency - Hittable Pitches Taken) * 10

Method note

The original implementation used a run-value average and produced ISO r 0.023.

Method note

A methodology audit restored rate-based ST - HPT and moved ISO r to 0.274.

Method note

Alternative-target diagnostics revealed the strongest signal is plate discipline: BB% r 0.648 and chase-rate r -0.692.

Validation / what it does not measure

Next-year BB% r 0.648 Next-year chase r -0.692 Next-year ISO r 0.274

Does not measure

It is not promoted as a primary power predictor; ISO correlation missed the original 0.300 gate by 0.026.

Does not measure

It does not yet include called-strike probability weighting or bat-tracking quality on correct swings.

Top 20 / current cached snapshot

Rank	Player	Metric	Sample	Status
1	Vargas, Miguel	115	413	qualified
2	Jensen, Carter	115	347	qualified
3	McGonigle, Kevin	114	426	qualified
4	Martin, Austin	114	230	qualified
5	Swanson, Dansby	113	289	qualified
6	Tucker, Kyle	113	375	qualified
7	Kurtz, Nick	112	300	qualified
8	Seager, Corey	112	288	qualified
9	Stephenson, Tyler	112	287	qualified
10	Torres, Gleyber	112	274	qualified
11	Torkelson, Spencer	111	363	qualified
12	Hoskins, Rhys	111	211	qualified
13	Freeman, Freddie	111	386	qualified
14	Vivas, Jorbit	111	217	qualified
15	Marsee, Jakob	110	392	qualified
16	DeLauter, Chase	110	330	qualified
17	Soto, Juan	110	247	qualified
18	Judge, Aaron	110	250	qualified
19	Springer, George	110	292	qualified
20	Wood, James	110	356	qualified