Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	692	110	142	38	5	.248	.366	.485	.851
2025	724	111	145	56	10	.240	.365	.563	.928
2026	601	81	120	40	3	.240	.355	.517	.872
12 Seasons	5985	881	1170	380	40	.232	.347	.502	.849

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03

95

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

86

Defense1 metrics

66

Speed2 metrics

10

Plate skills10 metrics

42

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03

xwOBA preseason	0.367
xwOBA current pace	0.362
xwOBA rolling p50	0.363
Observed weight	74%

xwOBA

0.339 0.351 0.363 0.376 0.387

wOBA

0.360 0.372 0.385 0.398 0.410

ISO

0.243 0.256 0.270 0.284 0.297

K%

29.7% 30.8% 31.9% 33.1% 34.2%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%8.8%

93

Exit velocity92.4

95

Hard-hit%49.8%

93

xBA0.392

97

xSLG0.811

99

xwOBA0.362

95

BB%14.2%

96

Bat speed74.3

96

K%32.8%

7

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-0.2 · 1B

Small sample

Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B

66 Regression applied

Range Runs-0.7 · 1B

Small sample

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-2.5 · DH

8

Sprint Speed25.6 · DH

11

SB Success Rate66.7% · DH

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-03

Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.3% · rebadged research

75

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9% · rebadged research

63

Correct Decisions68.8% · rebadged research

77

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline

64

Resists FastballwOBA 0.375 · validated

8

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106

78

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample

27

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.300 · validated thin sample

13

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.354 · insufficient sample

10

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.430 · validated

0

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Kyle Schwarber's tools (91) outpace production (87) by 4 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-11.0° Current 31° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

218 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.9σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.385

xwOBA (deserved)0.362

Schwarber’s wOBA sits at 0.385, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.362 — a gap of 0.023, -0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 612 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Rice, Ben NYY · L	0.53	Barrel rateChase rate	Player · Projection
Stowers, Kyle MIA · L	0.48	Avg exit velocityFly-ball rate	Player · Projection
Ohtani, Shohei LAD · L	0.48	xwOBA on contactIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Muncy, Max LAD · L	0.46	Chase rateBarrel rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	13	2026-08-22	Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding	2	2026-08-23	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +1.000

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.380 xwOBA \| 41 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| 2 K
2026-04-20 @ CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| 2 K
2026-04-17 vs ATL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| HBP, 2 K
2026-04-15 vs CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 3 K
2026-04-14 vs CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2 K

Age	33
Height	5' 11"
Weight	229 lb
Debut	2015-06-16

xwOBA Δ	-0.018
wOBA Δ	+0.006

Hitter Projections 20260.380 xwOBA \| 41 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| 2 K
2026-04-20 @ CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| 2 K
2026-04-17 vs ATL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| HBP, 2 K
2026-04-15 vs CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 3 K
2026-04-14 vs CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2 K

Kyle Schwarber

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail