Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	535	46	112	13	1	.234	.305	.365	.670
2025	490	50	114	7	1	.257	.320	.360	.680
2026	500	59	130	21	1	.295	.363	.502	.865
8 Seasons	3809	423	906	102	4	.267	.338	.414	.752

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-19

76

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

67

Defense3 metrics

60

Speed2 metrics

6

Plate skills10 metrics

32

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-19

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.2%

71

Exit velocity91.3

90

Hard-hit%47.0%

87

xBA0.329

63

xSLG0.556

67

xwOBA0.328

77

BB%7.1%

34

Bat speed69.9

54

K%20.8%

62

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Strength77.2 · 1B

1

Outs Above Avg7.0 · 1B

92

Range Runs5.5 · 1B

88

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-3.2 · 1B

8

Sprint Speed24.7 · 1B

3

SB Success Rate0.0% · 1B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-10-19

Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.2% · rebadged research

25

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3% · rebadged research

79

Correct Decisions65.7% · rebadged research

45

Resists FastballwOBA 0.364 · validated

14

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98

38

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · borderline

13

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample

37

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.320 · validated thin sample

4

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample

60

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384 · validated

8

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Ty France's tools (72) outpace production (70) by 2 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Power Efficiency Gap; Passive In-Zone Approach. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+12.5° Current 4° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

232 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-2.5σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.393

xwOBA (deserved)0.328

France’s wOBA sits at 0.393, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.328 — a gap of 0.065, -2.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 548 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Jung, Josh TEX · R	0.69	Ground-ball ratePull rate	Player · Projection
Lowe, Nathaniel CIN · L	0.67	Swing lengthGround-ball rate	Player · Projection
Baldwin, Drake ATL · L	0.66	Avg exit velocityFly-ball rate	Player · Projection
Stewart, Sal CIN · R	0.65	Swing lengthBat speed	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	10	2026-10-04	Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding	35	2026-10-06	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.218

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.314 xwOBA \| 10 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| HBP, K
2026-04-17 @ LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	1-3
2026-04-15 vs SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, R
2026-04-14 vs SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	1-4
2026-04-12 vs COL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	3-3 \| HR, 2B, HBP

Age	32
Height	5' 10"
Weight	215 lb
Debut	2019-04-26

xwOBA Δ	--
wOBA Δ	--

Hitter Projections 20260.314 xwOBA \| 10 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| HBP, K
2026-04-17 @ LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	1-3
2026-04-15 vs SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, R
2026-04-14 vs SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	1-4
2026-04-12 vs COL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	3-3 \| HR, 2B, HBP

Ty France

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail