Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	535	46	112	13	1	.234	.305	.365	.670
2025	490	50	114	7	1	.257	.320	.360	.680
2026	418	49	107	20	1	.292	.360	.512	.872
8 Seasons	3727	413	883	101	4	.266	.337	.413	.750

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02

78

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

69

Defense3 metrics

61

Speed2 metrics

5

Plate skills10 metrics

38

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02

xwOBA preseason	0.319
xwOBA current pace	0.330
xwOBA rolling p50	0.326
Observed weight	66%

xwOBA

0.304 0.315 0.326 0.338 0.349

wOBA

0.366 0.381 0.396 0.412 0.427

ISO

0.169 0.181 0.195 0.208 0.220

K%

18.5% 19.6% 20.7% 21.9% 22.9%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.7%

76 +25 vs proj

Exit velocity91.6

91

Hard-hit%47.1%

86 +26 vs proj

xBA0.333

67

xSLG0.567

72

xwOBA0.330

77 +16 vs proj

BB%7.1%

34

Bat speed70.2

60

K%21.1%

60

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Strength77.2 · 1B

1

Outs Above Avg7.0 · 1B

93

Range Runs5.4 · 1B

89

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-3.1 · 1B

5

Sprint Speed24.8 · 1B

4

SB Success Rate0.0% · 1B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-02

Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.7% · rebadged research

31

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.7% · rebadged research

73

Correct Decisions66.5% · rebadged research

55

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100

45

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · borderline

24

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample

58

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.306 · validated thin sample

8

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample

70

Resists FastballwOBA 0.367 · validated

12

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.382 · validated

9

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Ty France's tools (89) outpace production (83) by 6 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-10.0° Current 30° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

173 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-2.5σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.396

xwOBA (deserved)0.330

France’s wOBA sits at 0.396, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.330 — a gap of 0.067, -2.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 436 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Goldschmidt, Paul NYY · R	0.66	Ground-ball rateSwing length	Player · Projection
Baldwin, Drake ATL · L	0.65	Strikeout rateChase rate	Player · Projection
Lowe, Nathaniel CIN · L	0.65	Ground-ball rateSwing length	Player · Projection
O'Hearn, Ryan PIT · L	0.64	Strikeout ratexwOBA on contact	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	8	2026-08-21	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	25	2026-09-01	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.148

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.314 xwOBA \| 10 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| HBP, K
2026-04-17 @ LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	1-3
2026-04-15 vs SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, R
2026-04-14 vs SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	1-4
2026-04-12 vs COL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	3-3 \| HR, 2B, HBP

Age	32
Height	5' 10"
Weight	215 lb
Debut	2019-04-26

xwOBA Δ	+0.016
wOBA Δ	+0.082

Hitter Projections 20260.314 xwOBA \| 10 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| HBP, K
2026-04-17 @ LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	1-3
2026-04-15 vs SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, R
2026-04-14 vs SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	1-4
2026-04-12 vs COL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	3-3 \| HR, 2B, HBP

Ty France

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail