Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 32 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 180 lb |
| Debut | 2023-03-30 |
Player profile / Toronto Blue Jays
Nathan Lukes
RF · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 180 lb · Age 32
Club Toronto Blue Jays
Position RF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 91 | 13 | 23 | 1 | 1 | .303 | .371 | .447 | .818 |
| 2025 | 438 | 55 | 99 | 12 | 2 | .255 | .323 | .407 | .730 |
| 2026 | 219 | 23 | 57 | 5 | 0 | .288 | .343 | .404 | .747 |
| 4 Seasons | 779 | 95 | 184 | 18 | 3 | .267 | .332 | .407 | .739 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
25
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.301 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.305 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.292
0.305
0.318
0.330
wOBA
0.340
0.359
0.380
0.401
0.421
ISO
0.112
0.127
0.143
0.160
0.174
K%
12.4%
13.6%
14.9%
16.1%
17.3%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.8%
3
-18 vs proj
Exit velocity85.5
21
Hard-hit%29.8%
15
-18 vs proj
xBA0.320
49
xSLG0.418
18
xwOBA0.301
44
BB%6.4%
23
-23 vs proj
Bat speed65.7
9
K%14.4%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · RF
85
Arm Strength95.0 · RF
65
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs0.9 · RF
59
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
34
SB Success Rate0.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.9% · rebadged research
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.4% · rebadged research
11
Correct Decisions64.2% · rebadged research
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
28
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample
13
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290 · validated thin sample
25
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
85
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359 · validated
16
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.319 · validated
99
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
12
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
97 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.068 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Lukes’s wOBA sits at 0.380, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.301 — a gap of 0.079, -2.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 236 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giménez, Andrés TOR · L | 0.68 | Oppo rateSweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
| Meidroth, Chase CWS · R | 0.68 | Max exit velocityFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Wilson, Jacob ATH · R | 0.67 | Fly-ball rateIsolated power | Player · Projection |
| Freeman, Tyler COL · R | 0.65 | xwOBA on contactFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 5 | 2026-07-12 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.312 xwOBA | 11 HR | Projection |
| 2026-04-20 @ LAA0 HR | 2 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | 2 RBI |
| 2026-04-17 @ AZ0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-15 @ MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 |
| 2026-04-14 @ MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | K |
| 2026-04-12 vs MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |