Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 26 |
| Height | 5' 6" |
| Weight | 183 lb |
| Debut | 2025-04-18 |
Player profile / Boston Red Sox
Caleb Durbin
3B · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 6", 183 lb · Age 26
Club Boston Red Sox
Position 3B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 506 | 60 | 114 | 11 | 18 | .256 | .334 | .387 | .721 |
| 2026 | 507 | 66 | 112 | 12 | 16 | .251 | .325 | .386 | .711 |
| 2 Seasons | 1013 | 126 | 226 | 23 | 34 | .254 | .330 | .386 | .716 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
13
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.312 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.287 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 71% |
xwOBA
0.275
0.284
0.295
0.305
0.314
wOBA
0.318
0.331
0.344
0.358
0.371
ISO
0.114
0.125
0.137
0.150
0.161
K%
11.4%
12.2%
13.1%
14.0%
14.9%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
11
Exit velocity82.0
5
Hard-hit%25.9%
8
xBA0.280
13
xSLG0.377
8
xwOBA0.287
32
-33 vs proj
BB%7.9%
43
+23 vs proj
Bat speed66.2
14
K%13.7%
92
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.8 · 3B
15
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
84
Range Runs2.6 · 3B
78
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · 3B
58
SB Success Rate77.8% · 3B
41
Sprint Speed28.0 · 3B
66
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.7% · rebadged research
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.6% · rebadged research
15
Correct Decisions64.9% · rebadged research
36
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
35
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · borderline
90
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
46
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.251 · validated thin sample
96
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
59
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334 · validated
59
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336 · validated
88
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
254 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.030 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.028 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Durbin’s wOBA sits at 0.344, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.287 — a gap of 0.057, -2.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 532 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frelick, Sal MIL · L | 0.78 | Pull rateWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| Palacios, Richie TB · L | 0.70 | Bat speedHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Lukes, Nathan TOR · L | 0.67 | Barrel rateWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
| Vivas, Jorbit WSH · L | 0.67 | xwOBA on contactAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 7 | 2026-08-04 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 20 | 2026-09-02 | 6 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -1.931 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.317 xwOBA | 12 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | BB, R |
| 2026-05-20 @ KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-20 vs DET0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | 2B, BB, R |
| 2026-04-17 vs DET0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | 2B |
| 2026-04-14 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB |