Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 27 |
| Height | 6' 0" |
| Weight | 245 lb |
| Debut | 2019-04-26 |
Player profile / Toronto Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero
1B · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 245 lb · Age 27
Club Toronto Blue Jays
Position 1B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 697 | 98 | 199 | 30 | 2 | .323 | .396 | .544 | .940 |
| 2025 | 680 | 96 | 172 | 23 | 6 | .292 | .381 | .467 | .848 |
| 2026 | 528 | 64 | 123 | 8 | 7 | .262 | .333 | .360 | .693 |
| 8 Seasons | 4748 | 635 | 1200 | 191 | 33 | .285 | .362 | .480 | .842 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
66
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.397 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.333 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.351 |
| Observed weight | 71% |
xwOBA
0.329
0.339
0.351
0.363
0.374
wOBA
0.306
0.318
0.332
0.345
0.358
ISO
0.114
0.125
0.136
0.148
0.158
K%
11.2%
12.0%
12.9%
13.9%
14.7%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
61
-35 vs proj
Exit velocity90.4
83
Hard-hit%43.9%
76
-19 vs proj
xBA0.329
61
xSLG0.468
37
xwOBA0.333
80
-19 vs proj
BB%9.3%
60
-20 vs proj
Bat speed74.9
97
K%12.4%
95
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B
88
Range Runs2.8 · 1B
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 1B
27
SB Success Rate83.3% · 1B
59
Sprint Speed26.3 · 1B
23
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.4% · rebadged research
56
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0% · rebadged research
85
Correct Decisions67.8% · rebadged research
67
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
74
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.268 · borderline
89
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
24
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.312 · validated thin sample
5
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.303 · insufficient sample
94
Resists FastballwOBA 0.373 · validated
9
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
75
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
272 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.060 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.062 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Guerrero’s wOBA sits at 0.332, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.333 — a gap of 0.001, 0.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 539 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Herrera, Iván STL · R | 0.64 | xwOBA on contactIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
| Díaz, Yandy TB · R | 0.61 | Fly-ball rateSwing length | Player · Projection |
| Contreras, William MIL · R | 0.59 | Avg exit velocityWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| Chapman, Matt SF · R | 0.54 | Sweet-spot rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 17 | 2026-08-08 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 15 | 2026-08-30 | 1 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.095 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.393 xwOBA | 27 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ NYY0 HR | 1 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | RBI |
| 2026-04-20 @ LAA1 HR | 2 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 3-4 | HR, K, 2 RBI |
| 2026-04-17 @ AZ0 HR | 1 RBI / 9 Ch | 1 E | 1-4 | RBI |
| 2026-04-15 @ MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 11 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | BB, K |
| 2026-04-14 @ MIL0 HR | 2 RBI / 10 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | 2B, 2 RBI, R |