Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	679	99	167	23	9	.281	.365	.466	.831
2025	659	89	147	17	6	.260	.355	.399	.754
2026	563	70	136	13	1	.272	.341	.402	.743
7 Seasons	3083	414	738	98	24	.273	.354	.439	.793

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03

69

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

71

Defense4 metrics

48

Speed2 metrics

12

Plate skills10 metrics

47

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03

xwOBA preseason	0.342
xwOBA current pace	0.336
xwOBA rolling p50	0.338
Observed weight	72%

xwOBA

0.316 0.326 0.338 0.350 0.360

wOBA

0.334 0.346 0.360 0.373 0.386

ISO

0.135 0.145 0.157 0.168 0.179

K%

13.9% 14.8% 15.8% 16.7% 17.6%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.6%

76

Exit velocity90.4

82

Hard-hit%44.4%

77

xBA0.312

41

xSLG0.523

57

xwOBA0.336

81

BB%9.1%

57

Bat speed71.5

76

K%13.8%

92 +19 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Blocking Runs-1.0 · C

20

Catcher Throwing3.1 · C

95

Framing Runs-4.1 · C

12

Pop Time1.9 · C

65

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-2.5 · C

8

Sprint Speed26.0 · C

17

SB Success Rate33.3% · C

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-03

Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.7% · rebadged research

67

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.0% · rebadged research

89

Correct Decisions69.7% · rebadged research

83

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108

86

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.315 · borderline

12

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample

39

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305 · validated thin sample

9

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.364 · insufficient sample

5

Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated

57

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated

18

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

William Contreras's tools (80) outpace production (75) by 5 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+11.0° Current 5° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

293 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.9σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.360

xwOBA (deserved)0.336

Contreras’s wOBA sits at 0.360, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.336 — a gap of 0.023, -0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 572 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Vaughn, Andrew MIL · R	0.77	Hard-hit rateAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection
Springer, George TOR · R	0.74	Sweet-spot rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R	0.71	Swing lengthIsolated power	Player · Projection
Herrera, Iván STL · R	0.71	Oppo rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	15	2026-08-23	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score
Fielding	3	2026-08-26	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.095

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.348 xwOBA \| 19 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ LAD1 HR \| 2 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, 2 RBI, 2 R
2026-05-20 @ CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 13 Ch \| 0 E	3-4 \| BB, K, R
2026-04-17 @ MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| 2B
2026-04-15 vs TOR0 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| RBI
2026-04-14 vs TOR0 HR \| 1 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| BB, RBI

Age	28
Height	5' 10"
Weight	217 lb
Debut	2020-07-24

xwOBA Δ	-0.012
wOBA Δ	+0.012

Hitter Projections 20260.348 xwOBA \| 19 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ LAD1 HR \| 2 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, 2 RBI, 2 R
2026-05-20 @ CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 13 Ch \| 0 E	3-4 \| BB, K, R
2026-04-17 @ MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| 2B
2026-04-15 vs TOR0 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| RBI
2026-04-14 vs TOR0 HR \| 1 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| BB, RBI

William Contreras

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail