Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	79	7	11	0	2	.155	.241	.197	.438
2025	70	5	17	1	2	.283	.377	.417	.794
2026	177	17	43	4	3	.265	.314	.395	.709
4 Seasons	387	31	83	5	7	.241	.314	.337	.651

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18

14

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

23

Defense4 metrics

27

Speed1 metrics

48

Plate skills10 metrics

53

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18

xwOBA preseason	0.332
xwOBA current pace	0.277
xwOBA rolling p50	0.306
Observed weight	46%

xwOBA

0.276 0.290 0.306 0.322 0.336

wOBA

0.285 0.305 0.328 0.351 0.372

ISO

0.093 0.113 0.135 0.157 0.176

K%

10.1% 11.9% 13.9% 15.9% 17.7%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%1.6%

9

Exit velocity84.8

15

Hard-hit%27.5%

11

xBA0.284

16

xSLG0.389

10

xwOBA0.277

21 -31 vs proj

BB%6.3%

22 -34 vs proj

Bat speed65.7

9

K%13.1%

93

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-1.9 · LF

7

Arm Strength88.8 · LF

18

Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF

46

Range Runs-1.0 · LF

36

Baserunning · percentile strip

Sprint Speed27.3 · LF

48

SB Success Rate100.0% · LF

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-18

Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.0% · rebadged research

93

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.0% · rebadged research

9

Correct Decisions66.5% · rebadged research

54

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · borderline

37

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample

62

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample

86

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample

32

Resists FastballwOBA 0.332 · validated

65

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368 · validated

26

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103

63

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

José Fermín's tools (73) outpace production (77) by -4 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

92 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.6σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.328

xwOBA (deserved)0.277

Fermín’s wOBA sits at 0.328, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.277 — a gap of 0.051, -1.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 191 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	1	2026-07-08	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.309 xwOBA \| 6 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1
2026-04-20 @ MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| K
2026-04-14 vs CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| BB, R
2026-04-13 vs CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| BB
2026-04-12 vs BOS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K

Age	27
Height	5' 10"
Weight	198 lb
Debut	2023-07-07

xwOBA Δ	-0.032
wOBA Δ	+0.019

Hitter Projections 20260.309 xwOBA \| 6 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1
2026-04-20 @ MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| K
2026-04-14 vs CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| BB, R
2026-04-13 vs CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| BB
2026-04-12 vs BOS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K

José Fermín

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Module shelf

Available detail