Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	171	15	28	1	1	.189	.282	.236	.518
2025	188	17	35	4	1	.208	.278	.357	.635
2026	210	27	44	4	1	.244	.335	.406	.741
4 Seasons	637	69	127	9	5	.228	.308	.349	.657

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18

31

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

40

Defense4 metrics

32

Speed2 metrics

66

Plate skills10 metrics

54

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18

xwOBA preseason	0.307
xwOBA current pace	0.318
xwOBA rolling p50	0.313
Observed weight	51%

xwOBA

0.281 0.296 0.313 0.330 0.345

wOBA

0.325 0.345 0.367 0.388 0.408

ISO

0.119 0.140 0.163 0.185 0.206

K%

11.1% 12.8% 14.6% 16.5% 18.1%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%3.6%

27

Exit velocity87.5

42

Hard-hit%29.7%

14

xBA0.289

21

xSLG0.428

22

xwOBA0.318

62 +36 vs proj

BB%9.8%

65 +23 vs proj

Bat speed66.7

17

K%13.3%

92

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-0.2 · 3B

14

Arm Strength88.2 · 3B

66

Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B

43

Range Runs-5.4 · 3B

7

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs0.6 · 3B

61

Sprint Speed28.1 · 3B

70

SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-18

Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.9% · rebadged research

83

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0% · rebadged research

33

Correct Decisions65.8% · rebadged research

46

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · borderline

9

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample

77

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample

71

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.310 · insufficient sample

94

Resists FastballwOBA 0.345 · validated

37

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated

23

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105

71

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

97 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.5σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.367

xwOBA (deserved)0.318

Loftin’s wOBA sits at 0.367, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.318 — a gap of 0.049, -1.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 225 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Bregman, Alex CHC · R	0.70	Pull rateBarrel rate	Player · Projection
Lee, Brooks MIN · L	0.69	Avg exit velocityBarrel rate	Player · Projection
Stott, Bryson PHI · L	0.68	Fly-ball rateOppo rate	Player · Projection
Perdomo, Geraldo AZ · L	0.65	In-zone contactOppo rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	1	2026-06-23	Impact contact was the main driver

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.285 xwOBA \| 7 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs BOS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 1 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-20 vs BAL0 HR \| 3 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-2 \| 2B, BB, 3 RBI
2026-04-05 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| K
2026-04-04 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, R
2026-04-01 vs MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 1 E	0-0 \| BB

Age	27
Height	5' 11"
Weight	180 lb
Debut	2023-09-01

xwOBA Δ	+0.033
wOBA Δ	+0.082

Hitter Projections 20260.285 xwOBA \| 7 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs BOS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 1 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-20 vs BAL0 HR \| 3 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-2 \| 2B, BB, 3 RBI
2026-04-05 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| K
2026-04-04 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, R
2026-04-01 vs MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 1 E	0-0 \| BB

Nick Loftin

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail