Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	171	15	28	1	1	.189	.282	.236	.518
2025	188	17	35	4	1	.208	.278	.357	.635
2026	363	40	74	7	3	.238	.329	.392	.721
4 Seasons	790	82	157	12	7	.228	.310	.354	.664

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03

22

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

33

Defense4 metrics

47

Speed2 metrics

68

Plate skills10 metrics

57

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03

xwOBA preseason	0.307
xwOBA current pace	0.298
xwOBA rolling p50	0.301
Observed weight	64%

xwOBA

0.275 0.287 0.301 0.315 0.328

wOBA

0.313 0.327 0.344 0.360 0.375

ISO

0.123 0.139 0.157 0.174 0.190

K%

13.3% 14.6% 16.1% 17.6% 18.9%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%2.9%

21

Exit velocity85.7

24

Hard-hit%27.8%

11 -15 vs proj

xBA0.279

13

xSLG0.414

18

xwOBA0.298

43

BB%10.2%

70 +25 vs proj

Bat speed65.8

10

K%16.2%

84

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-0.2 · 3B

17

Arm Strength93.7 · 3B

91

Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B

46

Range Runs-2.0 · 3B

34

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs1.1 · 3B

67

Sprint Speed28.1 · 3B

69

SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-03

Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.0% · rebadged research

88

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.9% · rebadged research

34

Correct Decisions66.5% · rebadged research

55

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.309 · borderline

18

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample

77

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample

81

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.300 · insufficient sample

97

Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated

27

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated

15

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106

78

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Nick Loftin's tools (81) outpace production (72) by 9 points. Primary finding: high exit velocity but low barrel rate — bat-to-ball efficiency is leaving power on the table. Also flagged: Passive In-Zone Approach.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

144 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.7σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.344

xwOBA (deserved)0.298

Loftin’s wOBA sits at 0.344, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.298 — a gap of 0.046, -1.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 383 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Young, Jacob WSH · R	0.78	Ground-ball rateStrikeout rate	Player · Projection
Stott, Bryson PHI · L	0.74	Isolated powerPull rate	Player · Projection
Rocchio, Brayan CLE · L	0.71	Sweet-spot rateGround-ball rate	Player · Projection
Gilbert, Drew SF · L	0.71	Walk rateAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	2	2026-08-23	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score
Fielding	21	2026-09-01	5 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.116

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.285 xwOBA \| 7 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-05-20 vs BOS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 1 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-20 vs BAL0 HR \| 3 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-2 \| 2B, BB, 3 RBI
2026-04-05 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| K
2026-04-04 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, R

Age	27
Height	5' 11"
Weight	180 lb
Debut	2023-09-01

xwOBA Δ	+0.013
wOBA Δ	+0.059

Hitter Projections 20260.285 xwOBA \| 7 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-05-20 vs BOS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 1 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-20 vs BAL0 HR \| 3 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-2 \| 2B, BB, 3 RBI
2026-04-05 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| K
2026-04-04 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, R

Nick Loftin

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail