Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 28 |
| Height | 6' 0" |
| Weight | 215 lb |
| Debut | 2022-06-24 |
Player profile / Tampa Bay Rays
Jonathan Aranda
1B · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 0", 215 lb · Age 28
Club Tampa Bay Rays
Position 1B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 143 | 22 | 30 | 6 | 0 | .234 | .308 | .430 | .738 |
| 2025 | 422 | 56 | 117 | 14 | 0 | .316 | .393 | .489 | .882 |
| 2026 | 452 | 50 | 109 | 14 | 0 | .285 | .378 | .439 | .817 |
| 5 Seasons | 1207 | 151 | 291 | 38 | 0 | .278 | .365 | .441 | .806 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
82
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.336 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.358 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.351 |
| Observed weight | 68% |
xwOBA
0.329
0.339
0.351
0.363
0.373
wOBA
0.345
0.359
0.374
0.389
0.403
ISO
0.136
0.147
0.159
0.171
0.182
K%
21.1%
22.2%
23.4%
24.7%
25.8%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
71
Exit velocity91.2
88
Hard-hit%44.9%
77
xBA0.361
85
xSLG0.622
83
xwOBA0.358
90
BB%11.6%
81
+26 vs proj
Bat speed68.3
32
K%23.1%
46
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
13
Range Runs-1.9 · 1B
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.4 · 1B
6
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
12
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.7% · rebadged research
71
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7% · rebadged research
55
Correct Decisions67.7% · rebadged research
65
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
71
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.335 · borderline
3
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.309 · insufficient sample
4
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286 · validated thin sample
33
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.350 · insufficient sample
15
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
58
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.402 · validated
3
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
185 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.026 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Aranda’s wOBA sits at 0.374, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.358 — a gap of 0.016, -0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 467 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freeman, Freddie LAD · L | 0.75 | Chase ratexwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Busch, Michael CHC · L | 0.75 | Strikeout rateIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
| Stephenson, Tyler CIN · R | 0.69 | Avg exit velocityxwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| O'Hearn, Ryan PIT · L | 0.66 | Hard-hit rateStrikeout rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 6 | 2026-05-27 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 3 | 2026-07-28 | 3 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.338 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.348 xwOBA | 14 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 vs BAL0 HR | 2 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | 2B, BB, K |
| 2026-04-20 vs CIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 10 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | 2 BB |
| 2026-04-17 @ PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, 2 K |
| 2026-04-15 @ CWS0 HR | 1 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | 2B, BB, RBI |
| 2026-04-14 @ CWS0 HR | 0 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | 2 BB, 2 K, R |