Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	143	22	30	6	.234	.308	.430	.738
2025	422	56	117	14	.316	.393	.489	.882
2026	668	73	159	22	.274	.358	.434	.792
5 Seasons	1423	174	341	46	.274	.357	.438	.795

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-16

85

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

73

Defense3 metrics

81

Speed2 metrics

9

Plate skills10 metrics

35

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-16

xwOBA preseason	0.336
xwOBA current pace	0.346
xwOBA rolling p50	0.344
Observed weight	76%

xwOBA

0.324 0.334 0.344 0.354 0.363

wOBA

0.336 0.347 0.359 0.371 0.382

ISO

0.142 0.151 0.161 0.171 0.180

K%

21.9% 22.9% 23.9% 25.0% 25.9%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-16

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.5%

74

Exit velocity91.2

89

Hard-hit%47.0%

87

xBA0.354

86

xSLG0.615

83

xwOBA0.346

90

BB%9.7%

66

Bat speed68.6

36

K%23.9%

45

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs1.0 · 1B

99

Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B

81

Range Runs0.8 · 1B

62

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-3.5 · 1B

5

Sprint Speed25.7 · 1B

12

SB Success Rate0.0% · 1B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-10-16

Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.5% · rebadged research

61

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1% · rebadged research

50

Correct Decisions66.6% · rebadged research

55

Resists FastballwOBA 0.319 · validated

81

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103

61

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · borderline

8

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample

16

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.327 · validated thin sample

3

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample

12

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.396 · validated

4

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jonathan Aranda's tools (68) outpace production (53) by 15 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Power Efficiency Gap. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+17.3° Current -1° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.5σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.359

xwOBA (deserved)0.346

Aranda’s wOBA sits at 0.359, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.346 — a gap of 0.013, -0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 712 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Stephenson, Tyler CIN · R	0.77	Bat speedOppo rate	Player · Projection
Freeman, Freddie LAD · L	0.75	Chase rateBat speed	Player · Projection
Abreu, Wilyer BOS · L	0.66	In-zone contactChase rate	Player · Projection
Baldwin, Drake ATL · L	0.66	In-zone contactPull rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	13	2026-10-13	Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding	35	2026-10-15	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.085

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.348 xwOBA \| 14 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 1 E	3-5
2026-05-20 vs BAL0 HR \| 2 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, K
2026-04-20 vs CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 2 BB
2026-04-17 @ PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, 2 K
2026-04-15 @ CWS0 HR \| 1 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, RBI

Age	28
Height	6' 0"
Weight	215 lb
Debut	2022-06-24

xwOBA Δ	-0.002
wOBA Δ	+0.011

Hitter Projections 20260.348 xwOBA \| 14 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 1 E	3-5
2026-05-20 vs BAL0 HR \| 2 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, K
2026-04-20 vs CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 2 BB
2026-04-17 @ PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, 2 K
2026-04-15 @ CWS0 HR \| 1 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, RBI

Jonathan Aranda

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail