Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 28 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 210 lb |
| Debut | 2023-04-25 |
Player profile / Chicago Cubs
Michael Busch
1B · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 210 lb · Age 28
Club Chicago Cubs
Position 1B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 567 | 73 | 123 | 21 | 2 | .248 | .335 | .440 | .775 |
| 2025 | 592 | 78 | 137 | 34 | 4 | .261 | .343 | .523 | .866 |
| 2026 | 613 | 62 | 124 | 17 | 2 | .239 | .349 | .391 | .740 |
| 4 Seasons | 1853 | 222 | 396 | 74 | 9 | .246 | .338 | .444 | .782 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
61
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.346 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.330 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.334 |
| Observed weight | 74% |
xwOBA
0.315
0.324
0.334
0.345
0.354
wOBA
0.321
0.333
0.345
0.358
0.370
ISO
0.149
0.159
0.170
0.181
0.191
K%
21.5%
22.4%
23.5%
24.6%
25.5%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
65
-23 vs proj
Exit velocity88.3
54
Hard-hit%40.2%
57
-21 vs proj
xBA0.317
47
xSLG0.550
65
xwOBA0.330
77
BB%12.5%
89
Bat speed66.2
13
K%22.8%
49
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 1B
85
Range Runs2.8 · 1B
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.8 · 1B
7
Sprint Speed25.9 · 1B
15
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.8% · rebadged research
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2% · rebadged research
39
Correct Decisions67.9% · rebadged research
70
Resists FastballwOBA 0.312 · validated
90
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline
63
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample
16
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.252 · validated thin sample
95
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.366 · insufficient sample
5
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.391 · validated
4
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
244 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.008 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Busch’s wOBA sits at 0.345, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.330 — a gap of 0.015, -0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 626 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker, Kyle LAD · L | 0.74 | Chase rateWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| Aranda, Jonathan TB · L | 0.74 | Strikeout rateIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
| Karros, Kyle COL · R | 0.66 | Isolated powerSwing length | Player · Projection |
| McLain, Matt CIN · R | 0.66 | Fly-ball rateWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 7 | 2026-08-28 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 20 | 2026-08-31 | 2 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.696 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.353 xwOBA | 27 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs STL0 HR | 0 RBI / 10 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-05-20 vs MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | BB, K |
| 2026-04-20 vs PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K, R |
| 2026-04-17 vs NYM0 HR | 0 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | BB, K, 2 R |
| 2026-04-15 @ PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 0 E | 0-5 | K |