Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	447	59	101	15	8	.253	.322	.459	.781
2025	417	53	92	22	6	.247	.317	.469	.786
2026	599	78	136	23	8	.260	.337	.471	.808
4 Seasons	1548	200	353	62	25	.257	.330	.467	.797

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02

80

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

77

Defense4 metrics

86

Speed4 metrics

37

Plate skills10 metrics

31

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02

xwOBA preseason	0.324
xwOBA current pace	0.349
xwOBA rolling p50	0.342
Observed weight	73%

xwOBA

0.323 0.332 0.342 0.353 0.362

wOBA

0.334 0.345 0.358 0.372 0.383

ISO

0.190 0.200 0.212 0.223 0.234

K%

19.2% 20.2% 21.4% 22.5% 23.6%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%8.5%

90

Exit velocity89.7

73

Hard-hit%43.8%

75

xBA0.332

66

xSLG0.618

83

xwOBA0.349

90

BB%10.3%

71

Bat speed72.3

82

K%20.3%

64 +30 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs2.1 · RF

92

Arm Strength99.9 · RF

91

Outs Above Avg2.0 · RF

88

Range Runs2.0 · RF

73

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-1.2 · RF

21

Bolts4.0 · RF

43

SB Success Rate66.7% · RF

20

Sprint Speed28.0 · RF

66

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-02

Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.8% · rebadged research

53

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.3% · rebadged research

60

Correct Decisions66.0% · rebadged research

50

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102

57

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.338 · borderline

3

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.305 · insufficient sample

6

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample

29

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.357 · insufficient sample

9

Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated

32

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.380 · validated

10

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Wilyer Abreu's tools (73) outpace production (68) by 5 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Power Efficiency Gap; Contact-Discipline Mismatch. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+18.5° Current -2° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

271 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.4σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.358

xwOBA (deserved)0.349

Abreu’s wOBA sits at 0.358, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.349 — a gap of 0.009, -0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 610 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Suzuki, Seiya CHC · R	0.72	Whiff rateMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Greene, Riley DET · L	0.69	Barrel rateSwing length	Player · Projection
Langeliers, Shea ATH · R	0.68	Pull rateSwing length	Player · Projection
Jensen, Carter KC · L	0.66	In-zone contactSwing length	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	14	2026-08-21	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	16	2026-09-02	4 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +2.470

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.329 xwOBA \| 19 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ PIT1 HR \| 1 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	3-4 \| HR, 2 2B, RBI
2026-05-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 1 E	1-5 \| 3 K
2026-04-20 vs DET0 HR \| 1 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| BB, K, RBI
2026-04-17 vs DET0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-14 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K

Age	27
Height	5' 10"
Weight	215 lb
Debut	2023-08-22

xwOBA Δ	+0.020
wOBA Δ	+0.029

Hitter Projections 20260.329 xwOBA \| 19 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ PIT1 HR \| 1 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	3-4 \| HR, 2 2B, RBI
2026-05-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 1 E	1-5 \| 3 K
2026-04-20 vs DET0 HR \| 1 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| BB, K, RBI
2026-04-17 vs DET0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-14 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K

Wilyer Abreu

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail