Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 27 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 215 lb |
| Debut | 2023-08-22 |
Player profile / Boston Red Sox
Wilyer Abreu
RF · Bats/Throws L/L · 5' 10", 215 lb · Age 27
Club Boston Red Sox
Position RF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 447 | 59 | 101 | 15 | 8 | .253 | .322 | .459 | .781 |
| 2025 | 417 | 53 | 92 | 22 | 6 | .247 | .317 | .469 | .786 |
| 2026 | 409 | 47 | 95 | 13 | 6 | .263 | .334 | .443 | .777 |
| 4 Seasons | 1358 | 169 | 312 | 52 | 23 | .258 | .328 | .458 | .786 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
73
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.339 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.334 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.312
0.323
0.334
0.345
0.356
wOBA
0.315
0.330
0.345
0.361
0.375
ISO
0.159
0.172
0.185
0.199
0.211
K%
19.2%
20.4%
21.8%
23.2%
24.4%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
89
Exit velocity89.8
71
Hard-hit%41.3%
61
-19 vs proj
xBA0.335
64
xSLG0.592
74
xwOBA0.339
77
BB%9.6%
63
Bat speed72.4
82
K%20.5%
62
+28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · RF
71
Arm Strength99.9 · RF
94
Outs Above Avg6.0 · RF
97
Range Runs5.1 · RF
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.0 · RF
17
Bolts3.0 · RF
42
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
20
Sprint Speed28.1 · RF
70
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.5% · rebadged research
45
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4% · rebadged research
48
Correct Decisions65.5% · rebadged research
43
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
44
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.301 · borderline
23
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.307 · insufficient sample
5
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
65
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample
14
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
59
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
53
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
203 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.016 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Abreu’s wOBA sits at 0.345, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.339 — a gap of 0.006, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 415 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jensen, Carter KC · L | 0.71 | Ground-ball rateWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| McLain, Matt CIN · R | 0.70 | In-zone contactOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Riley, Austin ATL · R | 0.68 | Hard-hit rateAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Suzuki, Seiya CHC · R | 0.67 | Max exit velocityHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 7 | 2026-07-10 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.329 xwOBA | 19 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 1 E | 1-5 | 3 K |
| 2026-04-20 vs DET0 HR | 1 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | BB, K, RBI |
| 2026-04-17 vs DET0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-14 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |
| 2026-04-13 @ MIN0 HR | 1 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 2-3 | BB, K, RBI |