Reference layer
Current snapshot
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Player profile / SF
Casey Schmitt
Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 215 lb · Age 27
Club SF
Position --
Roster profile
Status IL-60
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 113 | 11 | 27 | 6 | 0 | .252 | .283 | .477 | .760 |
| 2025 | 348 | 34 | 74 | 12 | 0 | .237 | .305 | .401 | .706 |
| 2026 | 409 | 47 | 105 | 21 | 9 | .271 | .301 | .483 | .784 |
| 4 Seasons | 1147 | 120 | 258 | 44 | 11 | .244 | .290 | .420 | .710 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
87
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.313 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.355 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.340 |
| Observed weight | 66% |
xwOBA
0.317
0.328
0.340
0.353
0.364
wOBA
0.320
0.334
0.350
0.365
0.379
ISO
0.167
0.181
0.197
0.213
0.227
K%
18.6%
19.6%
20.7%
21.9%
22.9%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.0%
95
+36 vs proj
Exit velocity89.9
76
Hard-hit%44.7%
79
+21 vs proj
xBA0.365
91
xSLG0.648
90
xwOBA0.355
93
+37 vs proj
BB%3.3%
4
-20 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
64
K%19.6%
70
+25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
51
Arm Strength89.5 · LF
18
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
50
Range Runs1.4 · LF
63
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · LF
53
SB Success Rate88.9% · LF
78
Sprint Speed28.0 · LF
65
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.6% · rebadged research
34
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2% · rebadged research
60
Correct Decisions67.1% · rebadged research
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
40
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.307 · borderline
19
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
27
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.345 · validated thin sample
0
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.366 · insufficient sample
3
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327 · validated
70
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349 · validated
69
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
193 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.046 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.041 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Schmitt’s wOBA sits at 0.350, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.355 — a gap of 0.005, 0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 424 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dingler, Dillon DET · R | 0.76 | Whiff rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
| Lile, Daylen WSH · L | 0.69 | Strikeout rateSwing length | Player · Projection |
| Merrill, Jackson SD · L | 0.68 | Swing lengthMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Abreu, Wilyer BOS · L | 0.59 | Sprint speedPull rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 7 | 2026-07-09 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
| Fielding | 2 | 2026-07-26 | 6 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.656 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| No projection links or recent game log rows are available yet. |