Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	414	42	81	13	1	.229	.322	.395	.717
2025	448	51	88	21	5	.219	.275	.436	.711
2026	330	30	55	10	3	.190	.280	.317	.597
4 Seasons	1267	131	240	48	9	.215	.291	.396	.687

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03

50

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

52

Defense4 metrics

56

Speed1 metrics

15

Plate skills10 metrics

69

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03

xwOBA preseason	0.312
xwOBA current pace	0.293
xwOBA rolling p50	0.300
Observed weight	61%

xwOBA

0.274 0.286 0.300 0.314 0.327

wOBA

0.250 0.264 0.281 0.297 0.312

ISO

0.114 0.128 0.143 0.158 0.172

K%

23.1% 24.3% 25.8% 27.2% 28.5%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%4.4%

41 -24 vs proj

Exit velocity88.4

56

Hard-hit%43.1%

72

xBA0.309

39

xSLG0.518

57

xwOBA0.293

36 -20 vs proj

BB%10.2%

70 +19 vs proj

Bat speed70.6

66

K%26.8%

28 -21 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Blocking Runs1.4 · C

88

Catcher Throwing-1.2 · C

18

Framing Runs5.5 · C

90

Pop Time2.0 · C

29

Baserunning · percentile strip

Sprint Speed25.9 · C

15

SB Success Rate100.0% · C

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-03

Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.9% · rebadged research

63

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.8% · rebadged research

54

Correct Decisions67.8% · rebadged research

68

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103

64

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.258 · borderline

96

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.253 · insufficient sample

97

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268 · validated thin sample

80

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · insufficient sample

28

Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated

72

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349 · validated

72

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Austin Wells's tools (80) outpace production (74) by 7 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects. Also flagged: Chase Rate Problem.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

143 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.281

xwOBA (deserved)0.293

Wells’s wOBA sits at 0.281, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.293 — a gap of 0.012, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 343 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Manzardo, Kyle CLE · L	0.73	Fly-ball rateMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Yastrzemski, Mike ATL · L	0.70	Barrel rateOppo rate	Player · Projection
McMahon, Ryan NYY · L	0.68	Sprint speedChase rate	Player · Projection
Schneemann, Daniel CLE · L	0.67	Isolated powerBarrel rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	5	2026-08-30	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	4	2026-08-22	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.218

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.311 xwOBA \| 20 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| K
2026-05-20 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 12 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 K
2026-04-17 vs KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 2 BB, R
2026-04-14 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 12 Ch \| 0 E	1-3

Age	27
Height	6' 1"
Weight	220 lb
Debut	2023-09-01

xwOBA Δ	-0.018
wOBA Δ	-0.030

Hitter Projections 20260.311 xwOBA \| 20 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| K
2026-05-20 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 12 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 K
2026-04-17 vs KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 2 BB, R
2026-04-14 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 12 Ch \| 0 E	1-3

Austin Wells

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail