Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	414	42	81	13	1	.229	.322	.395	.717
2025	448	51	88	21	5	.219	.275	.436	.711
2026	388	39	62	14	4	.186	.292	.332	.624
4 Seasons	1325	140	247	52	10	.213	.294	.397	.691

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-18

57

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

58

Defense4 metrics

58

Speed1 metrics

18

Plate skills10 metrics

71

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-18

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%4.8%

49

Exit velocity88.8

62

Hard-hit%44.0%

78

xBA0.310

39

xSLG0.534

60

xwOBA0.304

54

BB%11.7%

86

Bat speed70.7

68

K%26.3%

31

Defense · percentile strip

Blocking Runs2.3 · C

93

Catcher Throwing-1.9 · C

14

Framing Runs6.6 · C

97

Pop Time2.0 · C

28

Baserunning · percentile strip

Sprint Speed26.1 · C

18

SB Success Rate100.0% · C

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-10-18

Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.4% · rebadged research

70

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4% · rebadged research

59

Correct Decisions68.5% · rebadged research

75

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105

73

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.249 · borderline

99

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.256 · insufficient sample

95

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample

89

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample

39

Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated

43

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated

66

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Austin Wells's tools (75) outpace production (52) by 23 points. Primary finding: high exit velocity but low barrel rate — bat-to-ball efficiency is leaving power on the table. Also flagged: Passive In-Zone Approach; Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

177 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.292

xwOBA (deserved)0.304

Wells’s wOBA sits at 0.292, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.304 — a gap of 0.012, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 418 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Yastrzemski, Mike ATL · L	0.73	Oppo rateBarrel rate	Player · Projection
Manzardo, Kyle CLE · L	0.72	Fly-ball rateSweet-spot rate	Player · Projection
McMahon, Ryan NYY · L	0.68	Hard-hit rateIsolated power	Player · Projection
Busch, Michael CHC · L	0.67	Sweet-spot rateSprint speed	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	8	2026-10-05	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	9	2026-09-20	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.218

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.311 xwOBA \| 20 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| K
2026-05-20 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 12 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 K
2026-04-17 vs KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 2 BB, R
2026-04-14 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 12 Ch \| 0 E	1-3

Age	27
Height	6' 1"
Weight	220 lb
Debut	2023-09-01

xwOBA Δ	--
wOBA Δ	--

Hitter Projections 20260.311 xwOBA \| 20 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| K
2026-05-20 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 12 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 K
2026-04-17 vs KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 2 BB, R
2026-04-14 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 12 Ch \| 0 E	1-3

Austin Wells

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail