Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 29 |
| Height | 5' 8" |
| Weight | 188 lb |
| Debut | 2024-09-08 |
Player profile / Kansas City Royals
Isaac Collins
LF · Bats/Throws S/R · 5' 8", 188 lb · Age 29
Club Kansas City Royals
Position LF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .118 | .211 | .118 | .329 |
| 2025 | 441 | 56 | 98 | 9 | 16 | .263 | .368 | .411 | .779 |
| 2026 | 459 | 42 | 90 | 6 | 6 | .228 | .326 | .347 | .673 |
| 3 Seasons | 919 | 98 | 190 | 15 | 23 | .242 | .344 | .372 | .716 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
39
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.298 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.304 |
| Observed weight | 68% |
xwOBA
0.279
0.291
0.304
0.318
0.330
wOBA
0.289
0.302
0.317
0.331
0.344
ISO
0.103
0.115
0.127
0.140
0.152
K%
20.6%
21.6%
22.7%
23.9%
24.9%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.4%
28
Exit velocity87.4
45
Hard-hit%39.9%
56
xBA0.308
37
xSLG0.430
24
xwOBA0.298
43
-22 vs proj
BB%11.5%
84
Bat speed70.1
58
K%22.2%
52
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.5 · LF
84
Arm Strength91.8 · LF
35
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
49
Range Runs-1.1 · LF
35
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.6 · LF
2
Bolts1.0 · LF
11
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
4
Sprint Speed27.5 · LF
50
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.0% · rebadged research
95
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research
47
Correct Decisions70.3% · rebadged research
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.324 · validated
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
91
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
45
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · insufficient sample
94
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.246 · validated thin sample
98
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
90
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
23
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
185 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.000 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Collins’s wOBA sits at 0.317, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.298 — a gap of 0.019, -0.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 468 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marsee, Jakob MIA · L | 0.81 | Max exit velocityIsolated power | Player · Projection |
| Bazzana, Travis CLE · L | 0.79 | Barrel rateAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Kelly, Carson CHC · R | 0.72 | Avg exit velocityxwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Thomas, Lane KC · R | 0.69 | Chase rateWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 4 | 2026-05-05 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 16 | 2026-09-03 | 3 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.505 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.317 xwOBA | 10 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ LAA0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | K |
| 2026-05-20 vs BOS0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 |
| 2026-04-20 vs BAL0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 2-6 | 2 K, R |
| 2026-04-14 @ DET0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-12 vs CWS0 HR | 1 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | RBI, 2 R |