Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 22 |
| Height | 6' 1" |
| Weight | 199 lb |
| Debut | 2024-03-29 |
Player profile / Milwaukee Brewers
Jackson Chourio
LF · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 199 lb · Age 22
Club Milwaukee Brewers
Position LF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 573 | 80 | 145 | 21 | 22 | .275 | .327 | .464 | .791 |
| 2025 | 589 | 88 | 148 | 21 | 21 | .270 | .308 | .463 | .771 |
| 2026 | 480 | 74 | 125 | 21 | 15 | .285 | .344 | .483 | .827 |
| 3 Seasons | 1642 | 242 | 418 | 63 | 58 | .276 | .325 | .469 | .794 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
88
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.341 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.338 |
| Observed weight | 69% |
xwOBA
0.314
0.325
0.338
0.350
0.361
wOBA
0.351
0.364
0.379
0.394
0.407
ISO
0.172
0.184
0.197
0.210
0.222
K%
20.1%
21.2%
22.4%
23.6%
24.6%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.8%
93
+16 vs proj
Exit velocity92.1
93
Hard-hit%47.9%
89
xBA0.350
81
xSLG0.642
88
xwOBA0.341
85
BB%7.8%
40
+17 vs proj
Bat speed72.5
85
K%23.5%
46
-30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · LF
75
Arm Strength95.2 · LF
63
Outs Above Avg3.0 · LF
93
Range Runs3.4 · LF
82
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · LF
57
Bolts33.0 · LF
87
SB Success Rate76.9% · LF
38
Sprint Speed28.8 · LF
86
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.9% · rebadged research
43
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.4% · rebadged research
29
Correct Decisions64.3% · rebadged research
30
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · borderline
17
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
12
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289 · validated thin sample
25
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.307 · insufficient sample
91
Resists FastballwOBA 0.404 · validated
1
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated
24
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
169 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.018 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.056 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Chourio’s wOBA sits at 0.379, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.341 — a gap of 0.038, -1.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 489 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| House, Brady WSH · R | 0.68 | Chase rateMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Smith, Cam HOU · R | 0.68 | Strikeout rateGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Rodríguez, Julio SEA · R | 0.68 | Sprint speedStrikeout rate | Player · Projection |
| Baldwin, Drake ATL · L | 0.66 | Swing lengthWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 15 | 2026-08-30 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 26 | 2026-09-03 | 5 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +0.258 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.323 xwOBA | 21 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-05-20 @ CHC0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | BB, K |