Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 23 |
| Height | 6' 3" |
| Weight | 224 lb |
| Debut | 2025-03-27 |
Player profile / Houston Astros
Cam Smith
RF · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 224 lb · Age 23
Club Houston Astros
Position RF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 493 | 55 | 104 | 9 | 8 | .236 | .312 | .358 | .670 |
| 2026 | 483 | 57 | 93 | 17 | 10 | .214 | .280 | .392 | .672 |
| 2 Seasons | 976 | 112 | 197 | 26 | 18 | .225 | .296 | .375 | .671 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
75
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.325 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.321 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.322 |
| Observed weight | 69% |
xwOBA
0.300
0.310
0.322
0.334
0.344
wOBA
0.277
0.289
0.303
0.317
0.330
ISO
0.144
0.156
0.169
0.181
0.193
K%
22.2%
23.3%
24.5%
25.7%
26.8%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.7%
85
+33 vs proj
Exit velocity89.2
66
Hard-hit%45.1%
80
xBA0.334
69
xSLG0.592
77
xwOBA0.321
70
BB%7.3%
35
Bat speed75.6
99
K%24.3%
41
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.1 · RF
11
Arm Strength97.1 · RF
77
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
48
Range Runs4.2 · RF
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.0 · RF
81
Bolts29.0 · RF
84
SB Success Rate83.3% · RF
59
Sprint Speed29.3 · RF
94
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.8% · rebadged research
48
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.5% · rebadged research
37
Correct Decisions65.7% · rebadged research
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
40
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · borderline
91
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
45
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
68
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.294 · insufficient sample
98
Resists FastballwOBA 0.357 · validated
20
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.325 · validated
95
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
198 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.021 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Smith’s wOBA sits at 0.303, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.321 — a gap of 0.018, 0.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 493 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodríguez, Julio SEA · R | 0.80 | Max exit velocityWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| House, Brady WSH · R | 0.77 | Walk rateOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Adell, Jo LAA · R | 0.77 | Oppo rateHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Duran, Jarren BOS · L | 0.76 | Max exit velocityGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 4 | 2026-08-18 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 16 | 2026-08-31 | 2 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +0.371 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.324 xwOBA | 11 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs SEA0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |
| 2026-05-20 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 2-3 |
| 2026-04-20 @ CLE0 HR | 1 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | K, RBI, R |
| 2026-04-17 vs STL0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | BB |
| 2026-04-15 vs COL0 HR | 1 RBI / 2 Ch | 1 E | 1-2 | 2B, BB, RBI |