Mithrandir Metrics
The Mirror live sim Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Heads up The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-08 beta

CIN 2, LAD 3. Final.

The Mirror’s record: every call graded →

Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.

Final

CIN 2, LAD 3

The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:48:57Z UTC · back to slate

Final
2 – 3final score
5total runs
68% → 100%LAD win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Lodolo, Nick vs Skubal, Tarik · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate

2026-09-08
CIN 31.8%LAD 68.2%
3.98 – 5.62mean score
9.6mean total
50%NRFI
8.5%extra innings
4.38 / 7.89starter K means
Run distributions

Total runs across 8,000 sims

2
3
4
5
6
7
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9
10
11
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15
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18

Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.

Team run distributions

CIN (gold) vs LAD (cyan)

0
1
2
3
4
5
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11

Paired bars per run count.

Projected batting lines

CIN per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Myers, Dane 4.6791.1280.096 1.6290.3721.540.337
De La Cruz, Elly 4.5641.1380.167 1.9550.361.6810.506
Stewart, Sal 4.4621.0810.187 1.9230.321.3560.599
Stephenson, Tyler 4.3610.9410.138 1.5710.3281.6490.483
Suárez, Eugenio 4.2570.7860.176 1.4860.3481.8130.472
Bleday, JJ 4.1480.8330.176 1.570.411.2460.446
Trevino, Jose 4.0440.9350.139 1.5320.1751.0980.408
McLain, Matt 3.920.7240.123 1.2520.3021.3950.339
Rodríguez, Héctor 3.7990.8690.136 1.4720.2431.2650.392
Projected batting lines

LAD per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Edman, Tommy 4.761.350.17 2.140.3661.0640.545
Betts, Mookie 4.641.2050.261 2.2340.4450.6670.7
Smith, Will 4.5151.1110.19 1.8780.5050.9490.594
Freeman, Freddie 4.4081.2850.184 2.0930.4950.8370.671
Hernández, Teoscar 4.3121.1790.218 2.0840.4011.2230.756
Rojas, Miguel 4.2051.1410.133 1.7590.3070.6470.587
Call, Alex 4.11.0040.088 1.4480.4650.8540.46
Muncy, Max 3.9960.9880.264 2.0180.4841.0520.752
Hernández, Enrique 3.8860.9150.17 1.6040.3321.1110.559
One representative simulation

A median-outcome game, batter by batter

This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.

— Top 1 —
Myers, Dane vs Skubal, Tarik: K
De La Cruz, Elly vs Skubal, Tarik: BB
Stewart, Sal vs Skubal, Tarik: BB
Stephenson, Tyler vs Skubal, Tarik: K
Suárez, Eugenio vs Skubal, Tarik: K
— Bottom 1 —
Edman, Tommy vs Lodolo, Nick: K
Betts, Mookie vs Lodolo, Nick: OUT AIR
Smith, Will vs Lodolo, Nick: BB
Freeman, Freddie vs Lodolo, Nick: 1B
Hernández, Teoscar vs Lodolo, Nick: K
— Top 2 —
Bleday, JJ vs Skubal, Tarik: K
Trevino, Jose vs Skubal, Tarik: K
McLain, Matt vs Skubal, Tarik: 2B
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Skubal, Tarik: OUT GB
— Bottom 2 —
Rojas, Miguel vs Lodolo, Nick: BB
Call, Alex vs Lodolo, Nick: OUT GB
Muncy, Max vs Lodolo, Nick: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Myers, Dane vs Skubal, Tarik: OUT AIR
De La Cruz, Elly vs Skubal, Tarik: K
Stewart, Sal vs Skubal, Tarik: BB
Stephenson, Tyler vs Skubal, Tarik: K
— Bottom 3 —
Hernández, Enrique vs Lodolo, Nick: 1B
Edman, Tommy vs Lodolo, Nick: 1B
Betts, Mookie vs Lodolo, Nick: 1B +1 run (0-1)
Smith, Will vs Lodolo, Nick: HR +3 runs (0-4)
Freeman, Freddie vs Lodolo, Nick: K
Hernández, Teoscar vs Lodolo, Nick: K
Rojas, Miguel vs Lodolo, Nick: OUT GB
— Top 4 —
Suárez, Eugenio vs Skubal, Tarik: OUT GB
Bleday, JJ vs Skubal, Tarik: K
Trevino, Jose vs Skubal, Tarik: BB
McLain, Matt vs Skubal, Tarik: K
— Bottom 4 —
Call, Alex vs Lodolo, Nick: OUT AIR
Muncy, Max vs Lodolo, Nick: 2B
Hernández, Enrique vs Lodolo, Nick: OUT AIR
Edman, Tommy vs Lodolo, Nick: K
— Top 5 —
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Skubal, Tarik: OUT AIR
Myers, Dane vs Skubal, Tarik: 1B
De La Cruz, Elly vs Phillips, Evan: 1B
Stewart, Sal vs Phillips, Evan: K
Stephenson, Tyler vs Phillips, Evan: HR +3 runs (3-4)
Suárez, Eugenio vs Henriquez, Edgardo: OUT GB
— Bottom 5 —
Betts, Mookie vs Lodolo, Nick: OUT AIR
Smith, Will vs Lodolo, Nick: K
Freeman, Freddie vs Lodolo, Nick: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Bleday, JJ vs Henriquez, Edgardo: OUT AIR
Trevino, Jose vs Henriquez, Edgardo: OUT GB
McLain, Matt vs Henriquez, Edgardo: 2B
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Dreyer, Jack: 1B
Myers, Dane vs Dreyer, Jack: K
— Bottom 6 —
Hernández, Teoscar vs Lodolo, Nick: K
Rojas, Miguel vs Antone, Tejay: OUT AIR
Call, Alex vs Antone, Tejay: OUT AIR
— Top 7 —
De La Cruz, Elly vs Dreyer, Jack: BB
Stewart, Sal vs Dreyer, Jack: 2B +1 run (4-4)
Stephenson, Tyler vs Hurt, Kyle: K
Suárez, Eugenio vs Hurt, Kyle: OUT GB
Bleday, JJ vs Hurt, Kyle: 1B +1 run (5-4)
Trevino, Jose vs Hurt, Kyle: K
— Bottom 7 —
Muncy, Max vs Antone, Tejay: OUT AIR
Hernández, Enrique vs Antone, Tejay: OUT AIR
Edman, Tommy vs Antone, Tejay: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
McLain, Matt vs Hurt, Kyle: K
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Hurt, Kyle: K
Myers, Dane vs Vesia, Alex: OUT GB
— Bottom 8 —
Betts, Mookie vs Mey, Luis: OUT AIR
Smith, Will vs Mey, Luis: K
Freeman, Freddie vs Mey, Luis: 1B
Hernández, Teoscar vs Mey, Luis: OUT GB
— Top 9 —
De La Cruz, Elly vs Vesia, Alex: OUT AIR
Stewart, Sal vs Vesia, Alex: BB
Stephenson, Tyler vs Vesia, Alex: K
Suárez, Eugenio vs Treinen, Blake: K
— Bottom 9 —
Rojas, Miguel vs Mey, Luis: 1B
Call, Alex vs Mey, Luis: K
Muncy, Max vs Pagán, Emilio: K
Hernández, Enrique vs Pagán, Emilio: OUT AIR