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The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-08 beta
CIN 2, LAD 3. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
CIN 2, LAD 3
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:48:57Z UTC · back to slate
2 – 3final score
5total runs
68% → 100%LAD win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Lodolo, Nick vs Skubal, Tarik · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
CIN 31.8%LAD 68.2%
3.98 – 5.62mean score
9.6mean total
50%NRFI
8.5%extra innings
4.38 / 7.89starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
CIN (gold) vs LAD (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
CIN per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myers, Dane | 4.679 | 1.128 | 0.096 | 1.629 | 0.372 | 1.54 | 0.337 |
| De La Cruz, Elly | 4.564 | 1.138 | 0.167 | 1.955 | 0.36 | 1.681 | 0.506 |
| Stewart, Sal | 4.462 | 1.081 | 0.187 | 1.923 | 0.32 | 1.356 | 0.599 |
| Stephenson, Tyler | 4.361 | 0.941 | 0.138 | 1.571 | 0.328 | 1.649 | 0.483 |
| Suárez, Eugenio | 4.257 | 0.786 | 0.176 | 1.486 | 0.348 | 1.813 | 0.472 |
| Bleday, JJ | 4.148 | 0.833 | 0.176 | 1.57 | 0.41 | 1.246 | 0.446 |
| Trevino, Jose | 4.044 | 0.935 | 0.139 | 1.532 | 0.175 | 1.098 | 0.408 |
| McLain, Matt | 3.92 | 0.724 | 0.123 | 1.252 | 0.302 | 1.395 | 0.339 |
| Rodríguez, Héctor | 3.799 | 0.869 | 0.136 | 1.472 | 0.243 | 1.265 | 0.392 |
Projected batting lines
LAD per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edman, Tommy | 4.76 | 1.35 | 0.17 | 2.14 | 0.366 | 1.064 | 0.545 |
| Betts, Mookie | 4.64 | 1.205 | 0.261 | 2.234 | 0.445 | 0.667 | 0.7 |
| Smith, Will | 4.515 | 1.111 | 0.19 | 1.878 | 0.505 | 0.949 | 0.594 |
| Freeman, Freddie | 4.408 | 1.285 | 0.184 | 2.093 | 0.495 | 0.837 | 0.671 |
| Hernández, Teoscar | 4.312 | 1.179 | 0.218 | 2.084 | 0.401 | 1.223 | 0.756 |
| Rojas, Miguel | 4.205 | 1.141 | 0.133 | 1.759 | 0.307 | 0.647 | 0.587 |
| Call, Alex | 4.1 | 1.004 | 0.088 | 1.448 | 0.465 | 0.854 | 0.46 |
| Muncy, Max | 3.996 | 0.988 | 0.264 | 2.018 | 0.484 | 1.052 | 0.752 |
| Hernández, Enrique | 3.886 | 0.915 | 0.17 | 1.604 | 0.332 | 1.111 | 0.559 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Myers, Dane vs Skubal, Tarik: K
De La Cruz, Elly vs Skubal, Tarik: BB
Stewart, Sal vs Skubal, Tarik: BB
Stephenson, Tyler vs Skubal, Tarik: K
Suárez, Eugenio vs Skubal, Tarik: K
— Bottom 1 —
Edman, Tommy vs Lodolo, Nick: K
Betts, Mookie vs Lodolo, Nick: OUT AIR
Smith, Will vs Lodolo, Nick: BB
Freeman, Freddie vs Lodolo, Nick: 1B
Hernández, Teoscar vs Lodolo, Nick: K
— Top 2 —
Bleday, JJ vs Skubal, Tarik: K
Trevino, Jose vs Skubal, Tarik: K
McLain, Matt vs Skubal, Tarik: 2B
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Skubal, Tarik: OUT GB
— Bottom 2 —
Rojas, Miguel vs Lodolo, Nick: BB
Call, Alex vs Lodolo, Nick: OUT GB
Muncy, Max vs Lodolo, Nick: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Myers, Dane vs Skubal, Tarik: OUT AIR
De La Cruz, Elly vs Skubal, Tarik: K
Stewart, Sal vs Skubal, Tarik: BB
Stephenson, Tyler vs Skubal, Tarik: K
— Bottom 3 —
Hernández, Enrique vs Lodolo, Nick: 1B
Edman, Tommy vs Lodolo, Nick: 1B
Betts, Mookie vs Lodolo, Nick: 1B +1 run (0-1)
Smith, Will vs Lodolo, Nick: HR +3 runs (0-4)
Freeman, Freddie vs Lodolo, Nick: K
Hernández, Teoscar vs Lodolo, Nick: K
Rojas, Miguel vs Lodolo, Nick: OUT GB
— Top 4 —
Suárez, Eugenio vs Skubal, Tarik: OUT GB
Bleday, JJ vs Skubal, Tarik: K
Trevino, Jose vs Skubal, Tarik: BB
McLain, Matt vs Skubal, Tarik: K
— Bottom 4 —
Call, Alex vs Lodolo, Nick: OUT AIR
Muncy, Max vs Lodolo, Nick: 2B
Hernández, Enrique vs Lodolo, Nick: OUT AIR
Edman, Tommy vs Lodolo, Nick: K
— Top 5 —
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Skubal, Tarik: OUT AIR
Myers, Dane vs Skubal, Tarik: 1B
De La Cruz, Elly vs Phillips, Evan: 1B
Stewart, Sal vs Phillips, Evan: K
Stephenson, Tyler vs Phillips, Evan: HR +3 runs (3-4)
Suárez, Eugenio vs Henriquez, Edgardo: OUT GB
— Bottom 5 —
Betts, Mookie vs Lodolo, Nick: OUT AIR
Smith, Will vs Lodolo, Nick: K
Freeman, Freddie vs Lodolo, Nick: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Bleday, JJ vs Henriquez, Edgardo: OUT AIR
Trevino, Jose vs Henriquez, Edgardo: OUT GB
McLain, Matt vs Henriquez, Edgardo: 2B
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Dreyer, Jack: 1B
Myers, Dane vs Dreyer, Jack: K
— Bottom 6 —
Hernández, Teoscar vs Lodolo, Nick: K
Rojas, Miguel vs Antone, Tejay: OUT AIR
Call, Alex vs Antone, Tejay: OUT AIR
— Top 7 —
De La Cruz, Elly vs Dreyer, Jack: BB
Stewart, Sal vs Dreyer, Jack: 2B +1 run (4-4)
Stephenson, Tyler vs Hurt, Kyle: K
Suárez, Eugenio vs Hurt, Kyle: OUT GB
Bleday, JJ vs Hurt, Kyle: 1B +1 run (5-4)
Trevino, Jose vs Hurt, Kyle: K
— Bottom 7 —
Muncy, Max vs Antone, Tejay: OUT AIR
Hernández, Enrique vs Antone, Tejay: OUT AIR
Edman, Tommy vs Antone, Tejay: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
McLain, Matt vs Hurt, Kyle: K
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Hurt, Kyle: K
Myers, Dane vs Vesia, Alex: OUT GB
— Bottom 8 —
Betts, Mookie vs Mey, Luis: OUT AIR
Smith, Will vs Mey, Luis: K
Freeman, Freddie vs Mey, Luis: 1B
Hernández, Teoscar vs Mey, Luis: OUT GB
— Top 9 —
De La Cruz, Elly vs Vesia, Alex: OUT AIR
Stewart, Sal vs Vesia, Alex: BB
Stephenson, Tyler vs Vesia, Alex: K
Suárez, Eugenio vs Treinen, Blake: K
— Bottom 9 —
Rojas, Miguel vs Mey, Luis: 1B
Call, Alex vs Mey, Luis: K
Muncy, Max vs Pagán, Emilio: K
Hernández, Enrique vs Pagán, Emilio: OUT AIR