Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 34 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 218 lb |
| Debut | 2013-08-20 |
Player profile / San Diego Padres
Xander Bogaerts
SS · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 218 lb · Age 34
Club San Diego Padres
Position SS
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 463 | 50 | 113 | 11 | 13 | .264 | .307 | .381 | .688 |
| 2025 | 552 | 63 | 129 | 11 | 20 | .263 | .328 | .391 | .719 |
| 2026 | 606 | 68 | 120 | 13 | 22 | .231 | .332 | .344 | .676 |
| 14 Seasons | 7675 | 1016 | 1942 | 210 | 148 | .283 | .349 | .438 | .787 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
58
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.321 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.324 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.323 |
| Observed weight | 75% |
xwOBA
0.304
0.313
0.323
0.334
0.343
wOBA
0.306
0.318
0.330
0.343
0.354
ISO
0.111
0.120
0.131
0.141
0.150
K%
16.2%
17.0%
17.9%
18.9%
19.7%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
37
Exit velocity89.7
74
Hard-hit%43.2%
74
+32 vs proj
xBA0.313
45
xSLG0.476
42
xwOBA0.324
73
+16 vs proj
BB%12.4%
89
+56 vs proj
Bat speed70.0
56
K%18.1%
77
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
59
Arm Strength85.8 · SS
40
Outs Above Avg3.0 · SS
85
Range Runs1.9 · SS
75
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.1 · SS
80
SB Success Rate95.0% · SS
89
Sprint Speed27.1 · SS
40
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1% · rebadged research
80
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2% · rebadged research
38
Correct Decisions67.8% · rebadged research
67
Resists FastballwOBA 0.358 · validated
19
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated
67
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
33
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
49
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291 · validated thin sample
27
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
73
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.015 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.021 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Bogaerts’s wOBA sits at 0.330, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.324 — a gap of 0.006, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 646 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Herrera, Iván STL · R | 0.76 | Barrel rateMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Springer, George TOR · R | 0.71 | Strikeout ratexwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Chapman, Matt SF · R | 0.68 | Whiff rateSweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
| Butler, Lawrence ATH · L | 0.66 | Ground-ball rateAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 4 | 2026-09-26 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 31 | 2026-10-07 | 2 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.945 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| 2026-08-15 @ CLE0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 |
| 2026-05-20 vs LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |
| 2026-04-17 @ LAA0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | BB |
| 2026-04-15 vs SEA1 HR | 2 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | HR, 2 RBI, R |
| 2026-04-14 vs SEA0 HR | 3 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 3-4 | 3 RBI |