Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 26 |
| Height | 6' 3" |
| Weight | 210 lb |
| Debut | 2023-08-11 |
Player profile / Athletics
Lawrence Butler
RF · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 3", 210 lb · Age 26
Club Athletics
Position RF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 451 | 63 | 108 | 22 | 18 | .262 | .317 | .490 | .807 |
| 2025 | 630 | 83 | 133 | 21 | 22 | .234 | .306 | .404 | .710 |
| 2026 | 278 | 31 | 48 | 5 | 6 | .197 | .295 | .295 | .590 |
| 4 Seasons | 1488 | 187 | 315 | 52 | 46 | .234 | .301 | .405 | .706 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
54
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.329 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.307 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.316 |
| Observed weight | 57% |
xwOBA
0.292
0.304
0.316
0.329
0.341
wOBA
0.267
0.283
0.301
0.320
0.336
ISO
0.111
0.126
0.142
0.158
0.172
K%
23.1%
24.6%
26.3%
27.9%
29.5%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.8%
31
-37 vs proj
Exit velocity88.6
55
Hard-hit%44.4%
73
xBA0.341
70
xSLG0.506
48
xwOBA0.307
49
-17 vs proj
BB%11.8%
83
+31 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
78
K%27.1%
26
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.7 · RF
31
Arm Strength91.3 · RF
33
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · RF
2
Range Runs-7.4 · RF
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.2 · RF
13
Sprint Speed26.3 · RF
23
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.1% · rebadged research
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1% · rebadged research
60
Correct Decisions70.6% · rebadged research
88
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · borderline
21
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · insufficient sample
96
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294 · validated thin sample
18
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.307 · insufficient sample
96
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313 · validated
90
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.315 · validated
99
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
122 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.017 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.023 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Butler’s wOBA sits at 0.301, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.307 — a gap of 0.006, 0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 288 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yelich, Christian MIL · L | 0.74 | xwOBA on contactGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Bogaerts, Xander SD · R | 0.66 | Avg exit velocityGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Baty, Brett NYM · L | 0.64 | Strikeout rateIsolated power | Player · Projection |
| Reynolds, Bryan PIT · L | 0.55 | Swing lengthWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 1 | 2026-05-07 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.324 xwOBA | 21 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ LAA0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | K |
| 2026-04-20 @ SEA0 HR | 2 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | 2 RBI, SB, CS |
| 2026-04-17 vs CWS0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | K |
| 2026-04-15 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2 K, R |
| 2026-04-14 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | K |