Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 26 |
| Height | 6' 3" |
| Weight | 210 lb |
| Debut | 2023-08-11 |
Player profile / Athletics
Lawrence Butler
RF · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 3", 210 lb · Age 26
Club Athletics
Position RF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 451 | 63 | 108 | 22 | 18 | .262 | .317 | .490 | .807 |
| 2025 | 630 | 83 | 133 | 21 | 22 | .234 | .306 | .404 | .710 |
| 2026 | 445 | 53 | 89 | 12 | 10 | .231 | .327 | .370 | .697 |
| 4 Seasons | 1655 | 209 | 356 | 59 | 50 | .239 | .309 | .414 | .723 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
68
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.329 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.320 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.323 |
| Observed weight | 67% |
xwOBA
0.301
0.312
0.323
0.334
0.345
wOBA
0.304
0.317
0.332
0.347
0.361
ISO
0.134
0.145
0.159
0.172
0.184
K%
23.2%
24.5%
25.8%
27.2%
28.5%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
51
-18 vs proj
Exit velocity89.3
67
Hard-hit%46.4%
85
xBA0.342
76
xSLG0.539
61
xwOBA0.320
69
BB%12.1%
87
+32 vs proj
Bat speed71.6
76
K%26.2%
33
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.6 · RF
16
Arm Strength93.3 · RF
49
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · RF
2
Range Runs-8.7 · RF
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.2 · RF
11
SB Success Rate85.7% · RF
67
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
32
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.5% · rebadged research
86
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.5% · rebadged research
75
Correct Decisions71.6% · rebadged research
91
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · borderline
13
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.256 · insufficient sample
95
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
57
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
79
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
46
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.309 · validated
99
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
177 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.008 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Butler’s wOBA sits at 0.332, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.320 — a gap of 0.012, -0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 455 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reynolds, Bryan PIT · L | 0.77 | Chase rateOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Yelich, Christian MIL · L | 0.77 | Oppo rateStrikeout rate | Player · Projection |
| Arozarena, Randy SEA · R | 0.70 | Whiff rateMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Bogaerts, Xander SD · R | 0.65 | Ground-ball rateWalk rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-08-16 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 23 | 2026-09-01 | 6 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +3.714 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.324 xwOBA | 21 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, K |
| 2026-05-20 @ LAA0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | K |
| 2026-04-20 @ SEA0 HR | 2 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | 2 RBI, SB, CS |
| 2026-04-17 vs CWS0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | K |
| 2026-04-15 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2 K, R |