Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	663	88	128	23	15	.224	.327	.399	.726
2025	652	81	154	25	13	.262	.324	.436	.760
2026	559	56	133	14	7	.264	.329	.423	.752
11 Seasons	4924	649	1107	149	61	.262	.360	.436	.796

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01

90

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

79

Defense4 metrics

20

Speed4 metrics

60

Plate skills10 metrics

51

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-01

xwOBA preseason	0.330
xwOBA current pace	0.356
xwOBA rolling p50	0.349
Observed weight	72%

xwOBA

0.326 0.337 0.349 0.361 0.372

wOBA

0.321 0.333 0.347 0.360 0.372

ISO

0.143 0.155 0.168 0.181 0.193

K%

19.8% 20.8% 21.9% 23.0% 24.0%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%7.3%

82

Exit velocity92.4

95

Hard-hit%51.1%

95

xBA0.366

92

xSLG0.623

84

xwOBA0.356

93

BB%8.1%

47 -16 vs proj

Bat speed70.5

65

K%21.6%

56

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-1.6 · RF

15

Arm Strength91.8 · RF

37

Outs Above Avg-3.0 · RF

7

Range Runs-2.6 · RF

21

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs0.9 · RF

62

Bolts8.0 · RF

60

SB Success Rate80.0% · RF

48

Sprint Speed28.2 · RF

72

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-01

Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.0% · rebadged research

62

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1% · rebadged research

62

Correct Decisions70.2% · rebadged research

87

Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated

68

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104

69

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.312 · borderline

15

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · insufficient sample

16

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample

72

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.350 · insufficient sample

13

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated

42

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Brandon Nimmo's tools (83) outpace production (80) by 3 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+15.5° Current 0° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

262 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.347

xwOBA (deserved)0.356

Nimmo’s wOBA sits at 0.347, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.356 — a gap of 0.010, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 579 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Tawa, Tim AZ · R	0.75	Swing lengthWalk rate	Player · Projection
O'Hearn, Ryan PIT · L	0.72	Strikeout rateSweet-spot rate	Player · Projection
Steer, Spencer CIN · R	0.67	Strikeout rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Keith, Colt DET · L	0.66	Walk rateBat speed	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	10	2026-08-31	Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding	19	2026-08-30	2 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +1.691

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.336 xwOBA \| 22 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, R
2026-05-20 @ COL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-3
2026-04-17 @ SEA1 HR \| 1 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| HR, BB, 2 K
2026-04-15 @ ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, K, R
2026-04-14 @ ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, R

Age	33
Height	6' 1"
Weight	206 lb
Debut	2016-06-26

xwOBA Δ	+0.021
wOBA Δ	+0.011

Hitter Projections 20260.336 xwOBA \| 22 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, R
2026-05-20 @ COL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-3
2026-04-17 @ SEA1 HR \| 1 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| HR, BB, 2 K
2026-04-15 @ ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, K, R
2026-04-14 @ ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, R

Brandon Nimmo

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail