Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 25 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 211 lb |
| Debut | 2024-03-28 |
Player profile / Detroit Tigers
Colt Keith
3B · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 2", 211 lb · Age 25
Club Detroit Tigers
Position 3B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 556 | 54 | 134 | 13 | 7 | .260 | .309 | .380 | .689 |
| 2025 | 468 | 65 | 106 | 13 | 1 | .256 | .333 | .413 | .746 |
| 2026 | 391 | 46 | 92 | 9 | 5 | .258 | .320 | .402 | .722 |
| 3 Seasons | 1415 | 165 | 332 | 35 | 13 | .258 | .320 | .397 | .717 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
72
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.331 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.335 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.334 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.311
0.322
0.334
0.345
0.356
wOBA
0.314
0.329
0.344
0.360
0.375
ISO
0.124
0.136
0.149
0.162
0.174
K%
17.2%
18.3%
19.5%
20.8%
21.9%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
65
Exit velocity89.4
70
Hard-hit%43.2%
73
+16 vs proj
xBA0.350
80
xSLG0.543
63
xwOBA0.335
80
BB%8.0%
46
Bat speed70.4
62
K%19.0%
71
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.5 · 3B
37
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
46
Range Runs0.1 · 3B
56
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.2 · 3B
84
Bolts1.0 · 3B
11
Sprint Speed28.0 · 3B
66
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.5% · rebadged research
81
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.8% · rebadged research
54
Correct Decisions69.1% · rebadged research
79
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.312 · borderline
15
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
2
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
68
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · insufficient sample
75
Resists FastballwOBA 0.316 · validated
87
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
34
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
196 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.000 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.010 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Keith’s wOBA sits at 0.344, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.335 — a gap of 0.009, -0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 410 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karros, Kyle COL · R | 0.73 | Avg exit velocitySweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
| Nimmo, Brandon TEX · L | 0.67 | Walk rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
| Rutschman, Adley BAL · L | 0.66 | Ground-ball rateOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Realmuto, J.T. PHI · R | 0.65 | Walk rateAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2026-07-18 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 12 | 2026-08-30 | 4 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.556 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.335 xwOBA | 14 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs CWS0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-20 vs CLE0 HR | 0 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E | 0-5 |
| 2026-04-20 @ BOS0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 |
| 2026-04-15 vs KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-14 vs KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 |