Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	142	14	26	1	6	.208	.303	.272	.575
2025	135	19	34	4	2	.270	.319	.437	.756
2026	169	18	36	5	2	.229	.280	.414	.694
4 Seasons	761	89	169	13	17	.245	.312	.365	.677

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18

48

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

43

Defense3 metrics

11

Speed2 metrics

32

Plate skills10 metrics

48

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18

xwOBA preseason	0.308
xwOBA current pace	0.298
xwOBA rolling p50	0.303
Observed weight	45%

xwOBA

0.269 0.286 0.303 0.321 0.338

wOBA

0.279 0.300 0.323 0.347 0.368

ISO

0.110 0.128 0.147 0.166 0.184

K%

18.5% 20.1% 22.0% 23.9% 25.6%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.6%

73 +38 vs proj

Exit velocity86.7

30

Hard-hit%37.4%

44

xBA0.316

44

xSLG0.518

53

xwOBA0.298

41

BB%6.0%

21 -22 vs proj

Bat speed67.5

24

K%21.9%

53

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Strength80.6 · SS

9

Outs Above Avg-2.0 · SS

18

Range Runs-5.6 · SS

6

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-0.6 · SS

27

Sprint Speed26.9 · SS

37

SB Success Rate33.3% · SS

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-18

Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.1% · rebadged research

63

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.1% · rebadged research

17

Correct Decisions67.8% · rebadged research

67

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.268 · borderline

87

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.302 · insufficient sample

8

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample

43

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample

49

Resists FastballwOBA 0.351 · validated

28

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated

72

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99

42

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Andruw Monasterio's tools (83) outpace production (83) by 1 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

98 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.8σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.323

xwOBA (deserved)0.298

Monasterio’s wOBA sits at 0.323, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.298 — a gap of 0.025, -0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 183 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	1	2026-07-07	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.302 xwOBA \| 6 HR	Projection
2026-04-15 @ MIN0 HR \| 1 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	3-5 \| 2B, RBI, R
2026-04-14 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| 2 K
2026-04-13 @ MIN0 HR \| 1 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| K, RBI
2026-04-08 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| 3 BB, R
2026-04-06 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1

Age	29
Height	5' 11"
Weight	195 lb
Debut	2023-05-28

xwOBA Δ	-0.004
wOBA Δ	+0.021

Hitter Projections 20260.302 xwOBA \| 6 HR	Projection
2026-04-15 @ MIN0 HR \| 1 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	3-5 \| 2B, RBI, R
2026-04-14 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| 2 K
2026-04-13 @ MIN0 HR \| 1 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| K, RBI
2026-04-08 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| 3 BB, R
2026-04-06 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1

Andruw Monasterio

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Module shelf

Available detail