Reference layer
Current snapshot
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Player profile / COL
Jake Mccarthy
Player · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 0", 213 lb · Age 29
Club COL
Position --
Roster profile
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 495 | 66 | 126 | 8 | 25 | .285 | .349 | .400 | .749 |
| 2025 | 222 | 18 | 42 | 4 | 6 | .204 | .247 | .345 | .592 |
| 2026 | 596 | 80 | 159 | 15 | 32 | .291 | .334 | .475 | .809 |
| 6 Seasons | 2049 | 265 | 498 | 39 | 115 | .269 | .327 | .409 | .736 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
41
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.321 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.322 |
| Observed weight | 74% |
xwOBA
0.301
0.311
0.322
0.332
0.342
wOBA
0.351
0.363
0.376
0.389
0.401
ISO
0.158
0.169
0.181
0.193
0.204
K%
14.7%
15.7%
16.8%
17.9%
18.9%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
37
Exit velocity82.8
7
Hard-hit%28.5%
13
xBA0.332
67
xSLG0.496
50
xwOBA0.321
71
BB%4.8%
12
Bat speed67.6
26
K%15.8%
87
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-3.4 · LF
3
Arm Strength86.3 · LF
5
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
50
Range Runs0.7 · LF
53
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs7.2 · LF
98
Bolts109.0 · LF
99
SB Success Rate84.4% · LF
61
Sprint Speed30.0 · LF
99
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.2% · rebadged research
20
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.3% · rebadged research
92
Correct Decisions68.1% · rebadged research
71
Resists FastballwOBA 0.378 · validated
8
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
48
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.260 · borderline
93
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample
22
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
76
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
26
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.393 · validated
4
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.007 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.062 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Mccarthy’s wOBA sits at 0.376, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.321 — a gap of 0.056, -2.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 620 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Church, Nathan STL · L | 0.65 | Barrel rateSwing length | Player · Projection |
| Martínez, Angel CLE · L | 0.58 | Whiff rateIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
| Young, Jacob WSH · R | 0.58 | Barrel rateWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
| Rocchio, Brayan CLE · L | 0.55 | Bat speedWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 4 | 2026-09-10 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
| Fielding | 30 | 2026-09-26 | 4 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +0.146 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.314 xwOBA | 7 HR | Projection |