Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	571	70	134	15	19	.246	.274	.390	.664
2025	587	84	136	16	20	.249	.295	.414	.709
2026	563	67	150	16	17	.284	.319	.446	.765
4 Seasons	1810	232	440	49	59	.259	.295	.415	.710

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31

33

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

32

Defense4 metrics

90

Speed4 metrics

58

Plate skills10 metrics

31

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31

xwOBA preseason	0.303
xwOBA current pace	0.282
xwOBA rolling p50	0.287
Observed weight	72%

xwOBA

0.268 0.277 0.287 0.298 0.307

wOBA

0.339 0.351 0.365 0.378 0.390

ISO

0.141 0.151 0.163 0.175 0.185

K%

18.6% 19.6% 20.7% 21.8% 22.8%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%4.0%

35 -23 vs proj

Exit velocity86.2

31

Hard-hit%33.0%

26 -24 vs proj

xBA0.315

45

xSLG0.455

33

xwOBA0.282

26

BB%4.1%

10

Bat speed67.1

21

K%20.2%

65

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs1.2 · CF

78

Arm Strength98.2 · CF

84

Outs Above Avg15.0 · CF

100

Range Runs13.7 · CF

99

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs0.1 · CF

44

Bolts26.0 · CF

80

SB Success Rate66.7% · CF

20

Sprint Speed29.0 · CF

89

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-08-31

Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.2% · rebadged research

11

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9% · rebadged research

42

Correct Decisions61.7% · rebadged research

15

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90

12

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.334 · borderline

4

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample

82

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305 · validated thin sample

8

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.354 · insufficient sample

10

Resists FastballwOBA 0.317 · validated

86

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated

42

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Ceddanne Rafaela's production (79) outpaces the tools grade (65) by 14 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-10.8° Current 31° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

253 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-3.3σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.365

xwOBA (deserved)0.282

Rafaela’s wOBA sits at 0.365, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.282 — a gap of 0.083, -3.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 580 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Church, Nathan STL · L	0.73	Bat speedMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Duran, Ezequiel TEX · R	0.66	Sprint speedIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Turner, Trea PHI · R	0.62	Max exit velocityFly-ball rate	Player · Projection
Tovar, Ezequiel COL · R	0.62	Chase rateAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	6	2026-08-17	On-base pressure held the card together
Fielding	19	2026-08-30	13 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +4.670

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.296 xwOBA \| 16 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| 2B, 3 K
2026-05-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, K, R
2026-04-20 vs DET0 HR \| 2 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 2 RBI, R
2026-04-17 vs DET0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, K, CS
2026-04-15 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, HBP, K

Age	25
Height	5' 10"
Weight	165 lb
Debut	2023-08-28

xwOBA Δ	-0.014
wOBA Δ	+0.069

Hitter Projections 20260.296 xwOBA \| 16 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| 2B, 3 K
2026-05-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, K, R
2026-04-20 vs DET0 HR \| 2 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 2 RBI, R
2026-04-17 vs DET0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, K, CS
2026-04-15 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, HBP, K

Ceddanne Rafaela

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail